【Institutional Strategy】Short-term A-share market may revert to a structural trend characterized by sector differentiation based on themes

China Securities believes that on Wednesday (March 25), the A-share market opened higher, moved higher, and fluctuated upward. During the session, industries such as non-ferrous metals, communication equipment, semiconductors, and consumer electronics performed well; photovoltaic equipment, coal, power equipment, and petrochemical industries performed weaker. The current core pressure on the market mainly comes from overseas. If the Middle East conflict further escalates, it could lead to sustained oil price increases, intensifying global stagflation pressures. If U.S. inflation continues to exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts or even raise interest rates again, putting pressure on global liquidity and risk appetite. Considering the clearer macro policy tone domestically, this provides a solid bottom support for the market. It is recommended to closely monitor macroeconomic data, overseas liquidity changes, and policy developments.

CaiXin Securities believes that on Wednesday (March 25), the A-share main index continued its broad rally and rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 3,900-point level. In the market, the technology innovation sector, which benefits more from risk appetite recovery, performed well, led by the high activity in the computing power industry chain recently. Meanwhile, oil and gas, coal sectors continued to weaken due to falling crude oil prices. Looking ahead, a more stable Middle East situation is highly likely, and global risk assets may gradually recover, with the A-shares returning to their own rhythm. In the short term, after continuous rebounds, the stage bottom may have been established. From a technical perspective, due to the previous rapid decline, some trapped positions have accumulated. Currently, major indices are approaching resistance levels, and a rapid breakthrough may require steady trading volume growth. However, after significant fluctuations earlier, confidence in the A-share market needs rebuilding, and the pace of new capital inflows remains to be observed. Therefore, after continuous broad gains, the A-share market in the short term may return to a sector differentiation pattern. In the medium term, driven by the continuation of the “double easing” macro policies, ongoing household savings asset inflows, improvements in corporate performance from “anti-involution,” and continuous breakthroughs in global AI technology, the current A-share rally remains solid. It is expected that the Middle East conflict will only affect short-term market sentiment and rhythm, not change the market direction. Confidence in the medium- to long-term positive trend remains, and excessive worry is unwarranted.