Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Could Surge If Trump Strikes an Iran Deal

TLDR

• Trump’s Iran deal talks are calming markets and could trigger a rotation back into AI and tech stocks
• Nvidia’s supply chain costs are rising due to higher oil prices and Strait of Hormuz disruptions
• Air freight costs from Taiwan are a key pressure point for Nvidia’s gross margins
• Nvidia’s 71.3% gross margin gives it significant cushion to absorb cost increases
• Wolfe Research names Nvidia a top buy if U.S.-Iran tensions ease further

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Nvidia has been caught in the crossfire of the Iran-Israel war. Since the conflict began on Feb. 28, oil prices have surged after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway that carries roughly 20% of global oil supply.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

That closure has pushed up transportation costs across the board, from diesel trucks to cargo planes to container ships. For Nvidia, which relies heavily on air freight from Taiwan to move its GPUs to customers, that’s a real cost pressure.

Nvidia primarily sources its GPUs from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing in Taiwan and ships them to the U.S. by air. Higher jet fuel costs feed directly into inbound freight costs, which squeeze gross margins. Delivery costs to customers are also rising, adding further pressure to operating margins.

The concern is real, but analysts say it’s manageable. Nvidia posted an adjusted gross margin of 71.3% and an adjusted profit margin of 54.2% in fiscal year 2026, ended late January. For comparison, AMD — its closest GPU rival — had an adjusted gross margin of 52.4% and an adjusted profit margin of 19.7%.

That cushion matters. A moderate increase in supply chain costs is unlikely to move the needle much for a company with margins like these. Nvidia also carries enough weight as a large-volume customer to negotiate with freight carriers, which could limit how much of those costs actually hit the bottom line.

Nvidia’s Pricing Power Could Offset Rising Costs

There’s another buffer: Nvidia’s chips are in short supply relative to demand. That gives it potential pricing power — particularly with customers who didn’t lock in fixed-price contracts. Passing some cost increases downstream is a real option.

CEO Jensen Huang made bullish remarks about the company’s trajectory at GTC 2026 earlier this month, the world’s largest AI conference. Analysts expect Nvidia’s fiscal Q1 results, due in late May, to beat Wall Street estimates — as fiscal Q4 results did.

Nvidia’s stock has been rangebound since the war began, weighed down by broader market uncertainty. But the trade backdrop may be shifting.

Iran Deal Talks Could Reignite AI Stocks

Trump recently signaled that talks with Iran are underway, hinting at a potential agreement. When he softened his stance on striking Iran’s energy infrastructure, oil prices dropped and stocks moved higher — a sign of just how sensitive markets are to any easing.

Wolfe Research analyst Chris Senyek flagged that a deal could drive investors back into risk assets, with U.S. mega-cap tech and AI names among the biggest beneficiaries. Nvidia, as the core holding of the AI trade, sits at the front of that list.

Senyek cited Nvidia’s data center dominance and chip leadership as reasons global capital could rotate back in its direction if confidence returns.

The stock trades at $175.88 — still well below its 52-week high of $212.19, with a market cap of $4.3 trillion. Its 52-week low stands at $86.62.

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