From Iran to Iraqi militias, the "Shia Crescent" reignites with gunfire.

Writing / Xu Lifan (Columnist) Editing / Ma Xiaolong Proofreading / Liu Baoqing

▲File photo: Damaged building in a residential area of Tehran, Iran, after an attack. Photo / Xinhua News Agency

The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has not yet subsided, and the fighting within Iraq is also spreading.

According to CCTV International News, in the early hours of March 16 local time, the Iraqi Shiite militia “Blood Guard Brigade” issued a statement saying that in an attack on the “Victory Camp” base near Baghdad International Airport, 6 U.S. soldiers were killed and 4 others injured. The statement also said, “The Iraqi people have awakened. This is just the beginning!”

In the early hours of March 17 local time, the “Blood Guard Brigade” also posted a video on social media showing the drone attack on the U.S. embassy in the Green Zone in Baghdad on the morning of the 16th. Although the U.S. embassy was not significantly damaged under the defense of the C-RAM (counter-rocket, artillery, and mortar) system, this indicates that as the Iran conflict continues, Iraq has once again become a battlefield for U.S. forces.

The “Blood Guard Brigade” is affiliated with the Islamic Resistance Organization, a Shiite militia group. Since February 28, this organization has launched hundreds of attacks using drones and rockets against U.S. facilities in Iraq and surrounding areas.

Moreover, from Lebanon to Yemen, Shiite armed groups are showing signs of action. Another scene that Israel and the U.S. would prefer not to see is unfolding.

Israel’s previous assessment was overly optimistic

For years, under the guidance of Khomeini’s “Constant Revolution” ideology, Iran has established close relationships with militia organizations and political networks in neighboring countries and regions. These include Sunni organizations like Hamas in Gaza and Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi movement in Yemen, and the Islamic Resistance organizations under the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces.

Among them, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi movement in Yemen, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, and the IRGC’s Quds Force are collectively known as the “Shiite Arc” or “Resistance Axis.”

This network shares a common goal of resisting Israel, rooted mainly in local societies, forming multiple anti-Israel nodes centered around Iran. Despite years of Israeli strikes, it has never collapsed.

It was not until 2020, after Trump authorized the U.S. military to kill IRGC Quds Force commander Soleimani, that the “Shiite Arc” faced a major crisis.

Since then, many Hamas and Hezbollah commanders have been targeted and killed by Israeli forces. Additionally, in December 2024, Bashar al-Assad, who had ruled Syria for 24 years, was forced to flee after being attacked by anti-government forces advancing toward Damascus. Several nodes of the “Shiite Arc” fell silent.

On February 28, 2026, after the joint U.S.-Israel strike on Iran, Israel claimed that the core members of the “Resistance Axis” had been largely eliminated. But current circumstances suggest Israel’s assessment was overly optimistic.

Not only that, but besides the “Blood Guard Brigade,” there are also Hezbollah’s Brigades, the Nujaba Movement, and other armed groups under the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. Recently, Israel announced that the Secretary-General of Hezbollah’s Brigades was “eliminated” by Israeli forces, which could provoke Hezbollah to retaliate and ignite new conflicts.

▲On March 13, an Israeli city was attacked by Iranian missiles. Photo / Xinhua News Agency

The expanding Middle Eastern battlefield

In addition to Shiite armed groups in Iraq, the Houthi movement in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon are also active, with clearer targets.

As early as March 5, Houthi leader Houthi announced that the organization “fully supports” Iran, stating, “Our finger is always on the trigger.”

On the 15th, the Houthis issued an official statement saying they would make a final decision on whether to blockade the key shipping route, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Houthis warned that if they decide to blockade, it would affect not only cargo and energy ships but also military vessels, including U.S. aircraft carrier groups.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, leading to the Suez Canal. About 10-12% of global trade passes through this strait. This is clearly part of Iran’s plan to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.

The larger fighting is happening in northern Israel and southern Lebanon. Since March 2, just days after the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran’s third day, Hezbollah’s elite unit “Radwan” began launching rockets into Israel, with attacks becoming more frequent. Subsequently, the Israeli military has conducted frequent operations in southern Lebanon.

Since 1982, Israel and Hezbollah have been locked in a perpetual conflict. In 2024, Israel, through infiltration of supply chains, converted Hezbollah’s communications equipment into explosive devices and remotely detonated them, nearly wiping out Hezbollah’s senior leadership.

However, tactical victories have not brought much strategic benefit. Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, with Hezbollah’s actions, Israel fears its northern region could become a second front, and has hinted at possibly occupying southern Lebanon controlled by Hezbollah for the long term. But this could lead to more casualties.

Opening a “new front” seems to be becoming a reality

Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Moojtaaba, declared in his first statement that he was studying the possibility of opening new battlefronts in “less experienced and vulnerable” enemy lines. The fact that Shiite armed groups are striking everywhere raises questions about whether this statement has already been put into action.

If so, it indicates that the reactivated “Shiite Arc” is adopting a different network approach than before. In the past, Iran managed the “Shiite Arc” mainly through providing large amounts of funding, weapons, and manpower.

But now, with Iran’s economy in poor shape—its rial has depreciated sharply against the dollar, hyperinflation is hard to control, and its industrial base has been hit since the conflict began—how does Iran plan to revive the “Shiite Arc”?

One possibility is that religious bonds are playing a role. After the conflict erupted, two senior Ayatollahs, Hamedani and Shirazi, issued a religious fatwa calling for the killing of Netanyahu and Trump.

Although this fatwa may not be implemented, it could encourage Shiite militias to attack U.S. forces. On the 13th, the Iraqi Islamic Resistance Organization issued a bounty for information on U.S. military and intelligence personnel.

Another possibility is tactical change. Reports indicate that the “Blood Guard Brigade” has used FPV (First Person View) drones in attacks on U.S. facilities. These low-cost, highly maneuverable drones, proven effective on the Ukraine-Russia battlefield, could pose a threat to U.S. forces.

Regardless of what drives the reorganization of Shiite armed groups from Iran to Iraq and Lebanon, one thing is certain: the U.S. and Israel are caught in a multi-front conflict. While this may not reverse Iran’s war situation, it has already revived the “Shiite Arc.”

The difficulty for the U.S. and Israel to exit the battlefield with a victory stance has undoubtedly increased.