What price would Trump have to pay to control the Strait of Hormuz?

Holding this strait on Iran’s long flank means deploying a large number of warships or launching a large-scale ground operation.

Author: Jared Marcin

President Trump has vowed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—a vital global energy supply route that has been blocked by Iran. This will not be easy.

Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have repeatedly promised that naval vessels will escort oil tankers and other ships through the strait. On Thursday, Trump said the escort operation would “begin very soon.” On Saturday, he called on other countries to join in via two social media posts.

The U.S. has not yet deployed warships into this narrow waterway—the narrowest point is only 21 miles (about 34 kilometers). Navy officials warn that Iran’s drones and anti-ship missiles could turn this area into a “death trap” for U.S. forces.

There are two main options for opening a passage for escort operations:

1. Strengthen air power to search for and destroy missiles and drones before they launch at ships in the strait; or
2. Use ground forces to seize territory along the strait’s coast.

Iranian Foreign Minister Alarabi told CBS that “several countries” are in contact with Iran, hoping their ships can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. government says all options are under consideration—including deploying ground forces. On Friday, Trump ordered a Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East, typically equipped with multiple ships, thousands of sailors, attack aircraft, and 2,200 Marines.

Escort Operations

In escort mode, U.S. warships (possibly in coordination with allied navies) will pass alongside oil tankers through the strait, clearing mines and defending against attacks from Iran’s air force and “mosquito fleets” (small, fast attack boats).

Experts estimate that each oil tanker may require two warships for escort. Protecting a convoy of 5–10 tankers would need about 12 ships to provide necessary air defense. The short distance makes intercepting missiles and drones extremely difficult.

Despite weeks of U.S. and Israeli strikes that have heavily damaged Iran’s navy and military capabilities, Iranian commanders still demonstrate the ability to continue attacks.

Bryan Clark, senior researcher at the Hudson Institute and a retired Navy officer, estimates that, besides warships, at least 12 MQ-9 “Reaper” drones would need to patrol over the strait, ready to strike if missile and drone launch sites appear along the Iranian coast.

“This requires thousands of Army and Navy personnel, significant funding, and could last for months,” Clark said.

Other military experts have proposed using aircraft like the “Harrier” vertical takeoff and landing jets to support escort operations.

Deploying warships for tanker escort means they cannot perform offensive missions or broader missile defense. Trump said Saturday he hopes countries like China, France, and the UK will send ships to assist.

According to Lloyd’s Intelligence, a shipping analysis firm, limitations in security measures and available ships could reduce tanker traffic through the strait to 10% of normal levels.

At this rate, over 600 international ships stranded in the Gulf region would take months to clear.

Even at such costs, Iran remains highly likely to launch devastating attacks, damaging or sinking military and commercial ships. Iran’s anti-ship cruise missiles are mobile, quick to deploy, and can strike and then retreat.

Landing Troops

A more aggressive military option is: launch a surprise attack and seize large areas in southern Iran to prevent its forces from attacking ships in the strait.

This would likely require thousands of troops and could take months. U.S. forces would face attacks from a regime fighting for survival.

The invasion plan would begin with large-scale coastal airstrikes, followed by U.S. amphibious landings in southern Iran, most likely carried out by Marine forces in rugged, mountainous terrain.

Commanders could use tactics like repeated infiltration, destroying drone and missile launch sites before withdrawing. But Iran might play a “cat-and-mouse” game—U.S. forces retreat, only for Iran to come back stronger.

Military analysts say that to truly control the area, an invasion is necessary. U.S. forces would try to suppress Iranian ground forces through airstrikes, but direct combat could still erupt.

Any ground forces inside Iran would become targets. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has 190,000 troops, with elite Quds Force units skilled in asymmetric warfare, supporting armed groups across the Middle East—including those attacking U.S. forces after the 2003 Iraq invasion.

“If you start with only a small number of special forces, do you need to send more troops later to protect them?” former State Department senior advisor and U.S. intelligence official Daniel Byman said. “You have to decide whether to stop once you see progress or keep escalating.”

To secure the strait, U.S. forces might need to be deployed for months or even longer.

“You need time. Time to plan, time to weaken their capabilities, and time—because if you want to control the Iranian side of the strait, you also have to disable the IRGC’s command and control systems,” said Daniel Sitreinovich, former head of Iran studies at Israel’s Defense Intelligence Research Department.

Shipping Industry’s Perspective

Even controlling the coast along the strait cannot fully eliminate Iran’s threat to shipping.

Iran has long-range missiles and drones capable of striking the Gulf region from inland areas. This week, Iran attacked an oil tanker near the northern Persian Gulf, close to the Iraqi coast, just hundreds of miles from the strait.

Reducing but not completely eliminating Iran’s attack risk may not be enough to persuade shipping companies to use this route.

Since the conflict began, Iran has carried out more than twenty attacks on shipping, igniting several vessels in the Gulf region.

Military and oil/shipping industry analysts believe that only a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, with Iran promising not to attack Persian Gulf ships, could restore the normal flow of over 100 ships daily.

“You have to convince insurance companies and shipping firms that this route is safe enough,” said Mick Marlow, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East affairs.