LONDON, March 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - China’s COSCO Shipping Lines (601919.SS), opens new tab may not have intended to send a geopolitical message. Yet its decision on Wednesday to restart bookings to the Middle East looks like a referendum on whether crucial ​maritime lanes through the Strait of Hormuz are reopening. Whether they do so on the United States’ preferred terms is ‌another matter.

Joint American-Israeli strikes on Iran have engulfed the region in a conflict that has effectively blocked the Strait, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas ordinarily transits. The $33 billion state-backed shipping firm has not taken any chances on braving passage, even as other vessels gamble, opens new tab that Iranian forces and their proxies will treat Chinese ships with ​deference, according to the Financial Times. It halted, opens new tab services to the Middle East on March 4, citing escalating tensions.

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Its subsequent reversal, opens new tab, covering routes from the ​Far East to Gulf hubs such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, therefore carries weight. Granted, this ⁠is just for ordinary freight cargoes, not energy shipments that are the fulcrum of Iran’s leverage. But container shippers are acutely sensitive to risk: they ​move only when insurers, counterparties and, crucially, governments signal it is safe enough. COSCO’s return suggests that threshold has been met, at least as far ​as it is concerned.

This is a material measure of reopening, much more so than muddled talks of efforts to end the war. True, Brent crude oil futures fell as much as 5% after the United States proposed a ceasefire, as the New York Times reported, opens new tab. But markets have been wrong-footed before, and Iran has repeatedly denied that it’s in talks ​with Washington.

The catch is that what’s viable for ships flying under the flag of Beijing, Tehran’s closest major partner, might not be for everyone ​else. Iran has charged fees of as much as $2 million to allow passage for some commercial vessels, Bloomberg reported, opens new tab, while officials have said, opens new tab that “non-hostile” fleets may pass, so long as they ‌coordinate with ⁠authorities. This raises the specter of either Tehran or local Revolutionary Guard elements essentially operating a tolling system over some of the most valuable water in the world.

That would presumably be anathema to Washington, and much worse for Western carriers than the pre-conflict status quo. Any move in this direction is still very tentative. COSCO’s bookings are one-way, and vessels diverted earlier will still take two to three weeks to return, according to Niels Madsen of shipping ​data provider Sea-Intelligence.

In that sense, COSCO’s ​ships might map out a new ⁠order in Hormuz. The waterway may be poised to reopen, but not like before, and not for everyone — at least not yet.

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Context News

• China’s COSCO Shipping Lines, a subsidiary of state-owned giant COSCO Shipping, announced ​on March 25 that it has resumed new booking services for ordinary freight containers from the Far East ​to the Middle East, ⁠including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq, effective immediately.
• It had previously suspended these services on March 4, citing escalating conflict in the region and resulting restrictions on maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Iranian counterpart Abbas Araqchi in a phone call to ⁠engage in negotiations ​as soon as possible with the United States to end the war between the two ​sides, according to a Chinese government statement on March 24.
• Oil prices sank 5% on March 25 after reports the United States had sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the ​conflict. Iran denied that direct talks had taken place, Reuters reported.

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Editing by Jonathan Guilford; Production by Maya Nandhini

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Yawen Chen

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Yawen focuses on European energy and luxury companies, commodity markets, and real estate as a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews in London. Previously, she was a columnist with Breakingviews in Hong Kong, covering a broad spectrum of topics concerning the Chinese economy, financial markets, and regional companies. She initially joined Reuters News as an economics correspondent in 2016. She earned the title of Reuters’ Journalist of the Year in 2023 in the commentary category.

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