Is the "small spring" coming to the Guangzhou-Shenzhen real estate market? Second-hand home transactions far exceed new homes, with some "bargain listings" closing within a week.

March has traditionally been the peak season for the real estate market, and the “Golden March, Silver April” reputation directly influences the market trend for the entire year.

In early 2026, Guangzhou and Shenzhen successively emerged from the low transaction period after the Spring Festival, with both viewing and transaction volumes rising in tandem, and market warmth continuing to spread.

A reporter from Daily Economic News (hereinafter referred to as “the reporter”) visited some properties, spoke with real estate agents, and consulted multiple research institutions to learn that this round of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen “small spring” has already arrived in substance. Meanwhile, the market logic has also undergone a significant change: some popular “bargain” properties (referring to high-cost-performance properties priced significantly lower than similar listings in the same area) are gradually disappearing, and the bargaining space for listed properties is shrinking.

Both Guangzhou and Shenzhen are showing a comprehensive lead in the secondary housing market, becoming the main drivers of this “small spring” rebound. The new housing market, however, is experiencing a deep segmentation: since the beginning of the year, Shenzhen’s new home supply has decreased year-over-year; in Guangzhou, luxury homes in the core areas are hot, while first-time buyers are still relying on discounts to drive sales. It can be said that the pattern of the primary and secondary markets has been reversed, with a reshaping of supply structures, making this round of “small spring” particularly distinctive.

A sales office of a property currently on sale in the Xin’an area of Bao’an, Shenzhen. Image source: Daily Economic News reporter Chen Ronghao

Secondary Housing Leading the “Small Spring”

This round of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen real estate “small spring” is primarily driven by the secondary market, with the fundamental market logic rewritten.

From data to firsthand experience, secondary housing is leading the recovery.

Shenzhen’s secondary housing market was the first to ignite the trend, becoming the core engine of this revival. According to monitoring by Le You Jia, after the Spring Festival, secondary housing transaction volume surged by 132% month-over-month, reaching the highest level since late March 2024. As of February 2026, the average transaction price for Shenzhen secondary residential properties has rebounded to 62,000 yuan per square meter.

Image source: Shenzhen Le You Jia Research Center

Data from Beike Research Institute also shows a clear trend: from March 2 to 8, Shenzhen’s secondary housing transaction volume increased by 118% month-over-month, with a single-day record high on March 8, reaching nearly a year’s peak, with two consecutive weeks of growth.

Additionally, market sentiment is recovering in tandem. According to the latest monitoring data from Shenzhen Beike Research Institute, in February, the number of secondary homes listed by their partner stores decreased by 3.3% year-over-year, with irrational sell-offs significantly reduced, and the market gradually entering a healthy cycle of “expectation strengthening—supply optimization—price stabilization.”

Image source: Beike Research Institute

“Currently, high-quality school district homes and properties with low total prices and high rental yields are recovering most noticeably. For example, in our area, the Liyuan main campus school district homes, like the 83-square-meter three-bedroom at Yuanling Garden, have seen increased inquiries and transactions after the holiday, especially since they are linked to Liyuan main campus and Hongling Middle School,” said Liu Anying, a senior agent in Shenzhen Futian Yuanling area, on the afternoon of March 14.

Liu mentioned that the transaction speed of “bargain” second-hand homes has been compressed into a relatively short cycle, with some even selling within a week of listing. “Take the Hailing Court project in Futian as an example. The large three-bedroom, about 108 square meters, is generally listed above 8.2 million yuan, with a unit price of about 77,400 yuan per square meter. Some owners are eager to sell, and with a listed price of 7.55 million yuan, it can be sold in about a week,” Liu said.

Photos of some second-hand homes listed in Cui Zhu, Luohu, Shenzhen. Image source: Daily Economic News reporter Chen Ronghao

In fact, similar phenomena are also present in Luohu, Shenzhen. As transaction volumes increase, owners’ attitudes toward listing stabilize, and they are less anxious to sell, which narrows bargaining space.

For example, a two-bedroom unit of 47.84 square meters in Cui Zhu Yuan, Luohu, visited by the reporter at the end of last year, was previously listed at 2.45 million yuan. An agent indicated that the lowest possible price could be around 2.3 million yuan. However, by March this year, the agent told the reporter that the owner’s minimum asking price was 2.37 million yuan.

The secondary market in Guangzhou is also experiencing a strong rebound.

Data from Beike shows that on March 8, Guangzhou’s secondary housing transactions reached 247 units in a single day, up 25.4% from the previous period; for the week of March 2–8, total transactions reached 849 units, a 118.8% increase. Post-holiday demand has been released in full, with continued growth in viewing appointments at agencies. The Guangzhou Real Estate Agency Association’s March manager index jumped 43.5 points to 71.78, indicating strong confidence in the “small spring.”

According to Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, both Guangzhou and Shenzhen are showing the core characteristic of “secondary housing outperforming new homes.” The number of new listings for secondary homes has decreased year-over-year, market sentiment continues to improve, and this also stimulates replacement demand (“selling old and buying new”), gradually smoothing the market cycle.

Xiao Xiaoping, director of Beike Research Institute in Shenzhen, also expressed similar views. He believes this rebound is not a short-term policy-driven spike but a resonance of policy optimization, confidence restoration, and concentrated release of demand for self-occupation. The continued volume increase in secondary housing and the simultaneous rise in new housing make this “small spring” more solidly rooted.

Structural Trends in the New Housing Market

Unlike the widespread enthusiasm in the secondary market, the new housing market in Guangzhou and Shenzhen has not experienced a general rise but is characterized by a typical “structural trend.”

For example, in Guangzhou, the luxury market has repeatedly broken transaction records, boosting nearby new housing viewing interest. In February, the Tianhe Ma Chang site sold for 23.604 billion yuan at a premium rate of 26.60%, with a residential land price of about 85,500 yuan per square meter, setting a new record for Guangzhou.

On March 2, a 670-square-meter top-floor duplex at Poly Yuexi Bay in Zhujiang New Town sold for 187 million yuan, with a unit price of about 280,000 yuan per square meter, breaking the local record for top-tier luxury homes. On March 9, five units of luxury duplexes at Galaxy Bay Peninsula No. 5 sold in a single day, totaling 718.7 million yuan, with unprecedented enthusiasm for luxury homes in the core area.

In contrast, the affordable new housing market in Guangzhou shows a clear “price reduction and volume increase” trend.

Guangzhou real estate agent Luo Jiamin told the reporter that many first-time buyer units are now being sold with discounts or special offers, “not offering discounts, it’s hard to sell.”

“For example, the pre-finished price of Huangpu Galaxy Bay Mountain has been directly adjusted to starting at 19,000 yuan per square meter, with three options—unfinished, semi-finished, and fully finished—to attract buyers. The limited-time discount at Liwan New World Tiánfù is directly 14% off, with prices as low as 38,000 yuan per square meter,” Luo said. “The market is very pragmatic now. Without fixed prices or concrete discounts, even with many viewers, sales are difficult.”

According to Zhongyuan Research and Development data, as of the end of February 2026, Guangzhou’s narrow inventory was 14.164 million square meters, a decrease of 13,000 square meters from January. Due to a general decrease in new supply in key areas in February, the new housing market mainly absorbed existing stock, with inventory slightly declining and decreasing for four consecutive months.

In Shenzhen, since 2026, there has been a noticeable slowdown in new housing supply. According to Midland Realty, only nine residential projects obtained pre-sale permits this year, far fewer than the 12 projects in the same period last year.

This slower pace of new project launches prevents large-scale market entry, leading to a structure where core areas see volume growth and stable prices, while first-time buyer areas rely on price reductions to boost sales, forming a structurally warming market.

According to Centaline Property data, as of March 12, Shenzhen’s total transaction volume for commercial residential properties was 964 units, with 1,703 second-hand units transferred.

Some Shenzhen projects released hot sales posters in March

Although overall new home transactions in Shenzhen are weaker than second-hand sales, the reporter noticed that many projects have released promotional posters for hot sales since March. For example, Longhua’s Hong Róng Yuán Guānchéng sold 41 units over two days (March 7–8), Ocean City·Chengming Garden sold 39 units last week, and China State Construction’s Pengchen Yunzhu sold 32 units in one week.

“With high-quality land parcels in core cities gradually coming to market in 2025, along with increased promotional efforts by some developers, market demand is expected to gradually release in March. The ‘small spring’ in core cities remains promising,” said Zhongzhi Research Institute.