Iran mobilizes over a million troops, preparing for ground operations! The U.S. plans a "lethal strike" scheme! International oil prices surge.

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Source: Futures Daily

Good morning, let’s start with the latest news.

U.S. plans a “lethal strike” scheme, Iran mobilizes over a million troops and prepares for confrontation

According to CCTV News, on the 26th local time, the ground battles between the U.S. and Iran and the control of the Strait of Hormuz continue to escalate, with both sides deploying military forces face-to-face, and the confrontation intensifies.

U.S. officials and sources reveal that the U.S. Department of Defense is rushing to develop a “lethal strike” military plan against Iran, covering multiple attack strategies: first, targeting Iran’s main oil export hubs and key islands, and potentially blocking or seizing Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz; second, planning ground operations deep into Iran to seize high-enriched uranium at nuclear facilities; third, preparing large-scale airstrikes to cut off Iran’s access to nuclear materials. Trump has not yet made a final decision on this plan. The White House states that ground operations are still “hypothetical discussions,” but U.S. military preparations are accelerating across the board.

Iran is also ramping up high-intensity preparations. Military sources on the 26th said that if the U.S. attempts to forcibly open the Strait of Hormuz through military action, Iran will continue to block the strait. Iran has mobilized over 1 million combat personnel, ready for ground combat with the U.S… Iran’s Army Commander Ali Jahan Shahi warned that ground warfare is “more dangerous and costly” for the enemy, and Iran is fully prepared to crush any attack.

Iran launches “Real Commitment-4” Round 82 operations

According to CCTV News, on the 26th local time, Iran launched the 82nd round of “Real Commitment-4” operations, using missiles and drones to strike U.S. military bases in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE, as well as targeting Israeli military sites and nuclear infrastructure.

Trump claims Iran sent a “big gift,” denies urgency to reach an agreement

According to CCTV News, on the 26th, U.S. President Trump sharply criticized U.S. media reports that he is eager to end the war through diplomacy, insisting that Iran is the one seeking to restart negotiations. He said whether a ceasefire occurs depends on Iran, and U.S. bombings will continue during this period. He also stated that he does not care whether an agreement with Iran is reached, “I’m in no rush.”

Earlier on the same day, Trump posted on “Real Social” that, at Iran’s request, the U.S. would suspend attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 10 days, resuming at 8 p.m. Eastern Time on April 6, claiming that current negotiations are “progressing smoothly.”

He also revealed what he called Iran’s “big gift” to the U.S.—allowing 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz—and mentioned that controlling Iran’s oil is “an option,” but he will not discuss it now.

Iran responds to U.S. “15-Point Plan”

According to CCTV News, on the 26th local time, Iran officially responded through intermediaries to the U.S. proposal of a ceasefire agreement containing 15 points, and Iran is awaiting the other side’s response.

Iran proposed five “must” conditions: the end of enemy aggression and terrorism; creation of objective conditions to ensure the war does not recur; clear commitments to compensate for war damages and implementation; ending all actions of resistance groups involved in the conflict across all fronts and regions; and Iran’s exercise of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz is a natural and legitimate right that must be recognized.

Sources say Iran is well aware that the U.S. talk of negotiations is just a “deception” tactic aimed at showing a peaceful stance, stabilizing global oil prices, and buying time for a ground invasion in southern Iran.

International oil prices surge, gold and silver prices fall

In commodities markets, international oil prices surged sharply overnight and this morning, with WTI crude futures up 4.61% and Brent crude futures up 5.66%.

Gold and silver prices weakened, with spot gold down 2.78%, closing at $4,380.49 per ounce; spot silver down 4.5%, at $68.1 per ounce.

U.S. stock major indices fell sharply, with the Nasdaq down 2.38%, over 10% below its all-time high, confirming an adjustment phase; S&P 500 down 1.74%, Dow Jones down 1.01%.

Asia-Pacific markets also declined collectively. Analysts say the Middle East geopolitical conflict will not end the “slow bull” trend in A-shares.

On the 26th, major A-share indices fluctuated and declined during the day, with a sharp drop in the afternoon. By close, the Shanghai Composite fell 1.09%, Shenzhen Component down 1.41%, ChiNext down 1.34%, STAR Market Composite down 1.83%. Total turnover of Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was about 1.96 trillion yuan, down approximately 236 billion yuan from the previous day. Nearly 4,500 A-shares declined.

Hong Kong stocks closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.89% at 24,856.43 points; the Hang Seng Tech Index down 3.28% at 4,761.54 points. Individual stocks: Kuaishou fell nearly 14%, Pop Mart dropped over 10%, China Life, Huahong Semiconductor, SMIC fell over 6%, Alibaba down over 4%, Meituan down nearly 4%.

Japanese and Korean markets also declined collectively. The Nikkei 225 index briefly fell over 1% intraday. At close, Nikkei down 0.27%, Korea Composite Index down 3.22%. Data shows that since the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict, global investors have withdrawn about $52 billion from Asian emerging markets (excluding China), marking the largest monthly outflow on record. Morgan Stanley analysts believe rising energy supply risks, a strong dollar, and profit-taking in tech stocks have worsened stock declines.

Futures indices also generally declined. CSI 300 futures (IF) main contract down 1.2%, SSE 50 futures (IH) down 0.97%, CSI 500 futures (IC) down 1.8%, CSI 1000 futures (IM) down 1.53%.

Regarding recent market volatility, Ji Tingting, an index analyst at Shenwan Futures Research Institute, told Futures Daily that the core driver of the brief rebound of major A-share indices on Tuesday and Wednesday was the recent intensive signaling of negotiations from the U.S., which, despite Iran’s lack of recognition, significantly reduced geopolitical risks and effectively boosted global risk appetite.

“From a technical perspective, the previous panic over geopolitical conflicts and ‘hawkish’ signals from the Federal Reserve caused the Shanghai Composite to fall and test the 3,800 support level. Since this level is a key psychological threshold, it provided strong support and triggered a rebound from oversold conditions,” Ji Tingting said.

Gaf Futures macro-financial head Chen Shangyu also said that the significant reduction in geopolitical risks was a key reason for the market rebound.

Has the logic of the domestic stock market fundamentally changed? Analysts interviewed unanimously believe it has not. Ji Tingting stated that the core logic of the A-share market remains unchanged, centered on policy support, reasonable liquidity, and corporate earnings verification. However, if negotiations between the U.S. and Iran break down, causing oil prices to spike or the Fed to shift policy, market risk appetite could decline.

Chen Shangyu from the geopolitical pricing perspective said that the market has been repeatedly pricing in the impact of Middle East conflicts on the global economy. If the conflict prolongs, it could lead to a global recession, changing the long-term recovery outlook. Currently, with the U.S. signaling negotiations, the likelihood of prolonged conflict is decreasing.

Looking ahead, Ji Tingting emphasizes three key variables: Middle East geopolitical conflicts, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and domestic Q1 economic data and corporate earnings. For futures strategies, she recommends a cautious stance in the short term, avoiding geopolitical and data volatility risks; in the medium to long term, trading on policy support and economic recovery logic, and buying quality stocks on dips.

Chen Shangyu reminds that Q1 earnings reports of A-share listed companies will be released successively in April, leading to sector differentiation, with fundamentals dominating market trends. Investors should stay disciplined, avoid frequent trading, and refrain from rushing into positions to chase reversals.

From a longer-term perspective, Qianhai Open Source Fund Chief Economist Yang Delong believes that although the Middle East conflict has pushed up international oil prices and affected some industries, it will not end the current “slow bull, long bull” trend in A-shares. He states that the three main supports of this bull market—policy support, household savings “moving,” and China’s technological innovation attracting global capital—are unaffected by Middle East conflicts. He advises investors to adopt a “less is more” approach, reduce frequent trading, and focus on medium- and long-term allocation of quality stocks and funds, maintaining equity positions at around 50-60%.