Hot Q&A | Ongoing regional conflicts: Will the Houthi forces participate in the fighting?

Xinhua Finance, Cairo/Sana’a, March 26 (Reporter Wu Baoshu, Yin Zha) - A military source from Iran recently told Iranian media that if the enemy attempts to launch ground operations against Iran’s islands or mainland, or pressures Iran through naval actions in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, Iran will open a new front in the Strait of Mandeb, causing the enemy to “double the cost.”

The Strait of Mandeb is under the control of the Houthi armed group in Yemen. After the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, the Houthis expressed their support for Iran, but so far have not taken action to assist. Why are the Houthis holding back? Will they join the conflict in the future? What impact would their participation have?

Why are they holding back

After the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, the Houthis immediately declared “full support” for Iran. The group’s leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, stated on March 5 that the Houthis are “ready to pull the trigger at any time” and will take action if the situation requires it. However, the group has remained inactive to date.

The Houthis currently control northwest Yemen, including the capital Sana’a and the Red Sea port city of Hodeidah. After the outbreak of a new round of conflict between Israel and Palestine in October 2023, the Houthis have frequently targeted vessels related to the U.S. and Israel in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea, and have launched missiles at Israel.

Yemeni media figure Murad Abdul believes that the Houthis are currently maintaining strategic restraint because they understand that joining the conflict would provoke a joint attack from the U.S. and Israel. Given the current fragile economic and living conditions in Yemen, a large-scale air strike on Houthi-controlled areas would contradict their political goals of seeking long-term control over Yemen and achieving “legitimacy.” Moreover, if the Houthis were to be targeted, the Yemeni government might seize the opportunity to launch an offensive against them.

Will they join the conflict

Houthi political bureau member Mohammed al-Bukhaiti stated on March 20 to RIA Novosti that to support Iran, the Houthis are considering all possible options, including blockading the Strait of Mandeb. Bukhaiti said that if they have to blockade the Strait of Mandeb, the Houthis will only attack vessels from countries that attack Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine.

The Wall Street Journal reported on the 21st, citing a U.S. official, that Saudi Arabia is making efforts to prevent the Houthis from joining the conflict. The report indicated that the U.S. and Israel are also trying to avoid provoking the Houthis into participating in the fighting.

Abdul stated that on one hand, despite their close relationship with Iran, the Houthis do not belong to Iran; on the other hand, Iran may not have explicitly asked the Houthis to assist, viewing the group instead as a “strategic reserve card” to be played when necessary.

Abdullah al-Dosari, editor-in-chief of the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Arab, believes that if the U.S. conducts large-scale bombings of critical Iranian facilities such as power plants, Iran will not respond with a limited reaction. Instead, it may mobilize allied forces to launch offensives and further disrupt shipping, causing higher costs for its adversaries.

What would be the impact if they join the conflict

To counter the U.S. and Israel, Iran is currently restricting navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy transport artery, which has caused international oil and gas prices to soar. The Strait of Mandeb connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and serves as a “throat” connecting the Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Indian Oceans. If the Houthis join the conflict and blockade the Strait of Mandeb, international energy supplies would suffer a “double blow.”

Taking Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports as an example, due to the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia is increasing its “east oil to west” strategy, transporting more crude oil from its eastern fields via pipeline to the west coast port of Yanbu, circumventing the Red Sea for export. If the Houthis blockade the Strait of Mandeb, this alternative route through the Red Sea would also be “blocked.”

On the 21st, President Trump threatened Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, or else the U.S. would strike and destroy “various power plants” in Iran. However, he later changed his position, stating that the U.S. and Iran had engaged in dialogue, and the U.S. decided to postpone the strike. U.S. sources revealed that the Trump administration is considering ground operations to seize Iran’s oil export “lifeline” on Khark Island, pressuring Iran to restore navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

A military source from Iran recently stated that the Strait of Mandeb is one of the most important strategic straits in the world, “If the Americans want to solve the problem of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz with foolish actions, they should be careful not to add another strait to their troubles and dilemmas.”

Editor: Wu Zhengsi