Institutions | Conservatively forecasted with a 12% growth rate, the number of domestic trips will exceed 7.2 billion by 2026.

On March 27, Mangle Research Institute released its 2025 China tourism market analysis report.

In 2025, the international tourism market will see steady growth, and visitor spending will remain strong. Data from the World Tourism Cities Federation’s “World Tourism Economic Trends Report (2026)” shows that in 2025, the total number of global tourist trips reached 15.90 billion, up 6.6% year over year; total tourism receipts reached $6.90 trillion, up 4.2% year over year.

China’s tourism market, meanwhile, is recovering strongly at a growth rate well above the global average, becoming a core engine driving global tourism growth.

For domestic travel, in 2025 the number of domestic trips taken by Chinese residents reached 6.522 billion, up 16.2% year over year; total domestic tourism spending was 6.30 trillion yuan, up 9.5% year over year. Urban and rural tourism consumption rose in parallel, with rural tourism growth leading the way. The integrated driving effect of cultural and tourism consumption has become prominent—performing arts, nighttime economy, ticket-stub (box office ticket) economy, ice-and-snow economy, and other areas are developing actively, effectively extending the consumption chain.

Inbound tourism achieved a historic breakthrough: the number of inbound visitors exceeded 154 million for the full year, up 17.1% year over year. Inbound tourism spending reached $131.1 billion. Among them, foreign visitors saw a particularly strong growth rate. Improved visa-free entry convenience, upgrades in cross-border payments, and increased frequency of direct flight routes jointly pushed inbound tourism to rise in both volume and quality, making China one of the world’s top tourism destinations.

Outbound tourism continued its steady growth momentum. In 2025, China’s travel services import value reached $253.78 billion, firmly ranking first globally. Overall, with the domestic, inbound, and outbound three major tourism markets flourishing and rising in both volume and price, as the “14th Five-Year Plan” comes to an end, China’s tourism industry has delivered a striking set of results.

Looking ahead to 2026, at the international level, intensified geopolitical conflicts, disrupted aviation networks, slower global economic growth, and other factors will weaken visitor confidence and affect travel safety and costs. The international tourism industry will face multiple challenges and uncertainties. According to a forecast by the UN World Tourism Organization, assuming the tourism industry in the Asia-Pacific region continues to recover, global economic conditions remain favorable, and geopolitical conflicts do not intensify, the number of international visitors in 2026 is expected to grow by 3% to 4% compared with 2025.

As for travel forecasts, National Geographic believes that the return of retro trends, the warming up of “sports-event travel,” first-launch experiences featuring indigenous characteristics, niche and healing trips, and the Z-generation cruise-ship boom will become core trends. Skift, a global tourism authority media outlet, released 19 development trends, including experience-based retail, “live” onsite music tourism, a strong return of high-end travel in Asia, Africa tourism emerging and standing out, and a “second spring” for train travel. In the future, the tourism market will accelerate its transformation toward deeper experiences, more personalized expression, and cultural resonance. The rise of diversified, segmented tracks will continue to reshape the value and form of global travel.

Looking ahead to 2026, at the domestic level, with the start of the “15th Five-Year Plan,” across the country provinces have set priorities and goals for tourism development. Centering on deep integration of culture and tourism as the main line, they are targeting the goals of building strong tourism provinces and tourism brands, and fully embarking on a new journey of high-quality development. On the market side, with residents’ consumption capacity improving, tourism supply continuously optimized, transportation infrastructure becoming more convenient, and the improvement and enrichment of leave arrangements (statutory holidays + spring and autumn holiday snow holiday, etc.), residents’ travel enthusiasm will continue to rise. Conservatively forecasting with a 12% growth rate, the number of domestic trips by residents in 2026 will exceed 7.2 billion. Considering practical factors such as residents’ more conservative and rational consumption and income that is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term, total domestic travel spending is estimated using an 8% growth rate. It is expected that residents’ total domestic travel spending in 2026 will reach 6.8 trillion yuan.

In 2026, China will continue expanding high-level opening-up to the outside world. Visa facilitation policies and benefits for inbound tourism will be further strengthened (for example, on March 20, nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the policy measures titled “Policy Measures on Promoting the Export of Travel Services and Expanding Inbound Consumption”), and international routes will accelerate their recovery. The number of inbound tourism trips will maintain stable growth. Considering that the 2025 base is relatively high and growth in 2026 will return to normal, using a year-on-year growth rate of 15%, it is estimated that the number of inbound visitors for the full year will exceed 170 million. Using a 30% year-on-year growth rate for inbound tourism spending, it is expected that total inbound tourism spending in 2026 will reach $170 billion.