Hexun Investment Advisor Liu Yu: Don't be controlled by price fluctuations; focus more on the sentiment behind the prices.

Today, the overall market showed a pattern of broad declines. Although there was some differentiation in the early session, it ultimately evolved into a pullback after a brief surge. Since there was no significant negative feedback throughout the day, there is still an expectation of stabilization following continued differentiation tomorrow. However, today’s trading volume did not effectively expand, indicating a lack of active trading in the market, with many funds opting to take a passive approach. Therefore, caution is needed for potential volume contractions, but the downside space is expected to be limited, likely oscillating around the 3800 points mark, with the pace depending on external disturbances.

On the sentiment level, today is still defined as rising, but high-level sentiment has noticeably weakened, with divergences appearing, though the last straw has yet to fall. Overall, the difficulty of continuing to expand upward is considerable. From the data, the height of consecutive boards has dropped from 8 yesterday to 3 today, with 4 companies in the 3-board tier, indicating that funds still have a strong willingness to make supplementary gains, but this is of a nature of recovery after a gap. These varieties initiated under the shadow of high-level stocks in the last round, positioned as supplementary gains, and even if they move up, the upward potential is not optimistic.

In terms of the bottom line, although the index broadly declined today, there was no widespread negative feedback, closing with only 8 stocks hitting the daily limit down, mostly non-popular varieties. This pattern of insufficient divergence is likely to lead to continued negative feedback after significant intraday fluctuations. Tomorrow’s sentiment direction needs to observe two points: first, whether the divergence turns into recovery or retreats. If it turns into recovery, with high marks stabilizing and low positions driving supplementary gains, sentiment will remain stable; if it turns into retreat, the high marks that withstood today will experience supplementary declines, dragging down other sentiment varieties. Considering that today’s sentiment has noticeably weakened, the latter possibility is greater. Once the retreat is confirmed, it is advisable to watch more and act less, waiting for a new turning point after the cycle clears.

From the perspective of thematic structure, green electricity and computation electricity serve as emotional carriers, with many varieties today showing long lower shadows, likely exacerbating divergences tomorrow. Before sentiment weakens, respecting signals and locking in profits is a more prudent choice. In the CPO direction, previously strong varieties have formed expectations of a small double top after adjustments, with limited space remaining, and their weakness may drag down the Shenzhen Composite Index. In terms of overseas computing power, core varieties have approached previous highs, making it difficult to expand further, and any pullback will weigh on the index. The energy storage line is relatively smoother, showing core performance today but dragged down by the index, and tomorrow it will be necessary to observe whether it can avoid supplementary declines, ideally releasing divergent chips in the early session.

In other directions, chemicals and non-ferrous metals that have significantly dropped may have sporadic performances, but the space is limited. The pharmaceutical line may perform when driven by the earnings of innovative drug leaders, especially when the index weakens. The lithium battery line has shown performance due to energy storage demand and the closure of overseas mines, but the sector effect is not strong; if it recovers tomorrow, it will face divergences the day after, making operations quite challenging. Late in the session, the aerospace sector showed unusual movement, reflecting more of a high-low fund switch, indicating a decline in risk appetite.

Overall, better opportunities are unlikely to arise on Friday, and further release of divergences is needed before next week to clearly see new emotional carriers and resonant directions.

(Author: Zhang Yan)

     【Disclaimer】This article represents the author's personal view and is not related to Hexun.com. Hexun.com maintains neutrality regarding the statements and judgments made in this article, and does not provide any express or implied guarantees regarding the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the content. Readers should use it for reference only and assume all responsibilities at their own discretion. Email: news_center@staff.hexun.com

Report