Zhang Jinlei: Gold stands at a critical point of crisis; US-Iran talks will determine bullish or bearish direction

March 26, yesterday gold saw a high-level consolidation. In the Asia session, it moved higher immediately at the open; after breaking above 4600, it began to pull back. After returning to 4520, it basically traded in a range above that level, and the short positions were also profitable with no surprises. Ultimately, the gold price closed at $4505, and the daily chart printed a small bullish candle.

On Thursday (March 26), mediators from Türkiye, Egypt, and Pakistan are fully pushing for today (March 26) to arrange a meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials, with the location possibly set in Islamabad. Trump said negotiations have made progress, and Iran has made “valuable concessions” related to the Strait of Hormuz and energy. Diplomatic breakthroughs beyond expectations eased the market’s concerns about the conflict escalating without limit, triggering short-covering and a return of speculative capital.

Therefore, geopolitical tensions are now at the “critical point of crisis”—if today’s U.S.-Iran meeting makes progress, it could trigger further upside in gold prices; if negotiations fail or the conflict escalates, gold will face a second round of pressure from “high oil prices → high interest rates.” This is the core logic behind yesterday’s strong rebound: expectations for a diplomatic breakthrough ignited market sentiment.

Technically, yesterday gold briefly rebounded to test above 4600, but it couldn’t hold for long. This indicates a lack of momentum and confidence on the long side. The market had also initially made room for the idea that prices would not directly test the 4700-30 area. On the hourly chart, there may still be another rebound today, but the room for upside remains limited, with the risk at any time that an overextended rebound could end with a spike followed by a pullback. For the day, first look for resistance around 4580-4600. If that level is broken, then watch resistance near 4650 and 4690-4700. On the downside, the day’s trading may need to focus on the 4480/70 area. If that level is lost, gold’s short-term rebound may be difficult to see again, and it is very likely—under the impact of fundamentals—that it will return to a weak trend.

In short, today is a typical “geopolitical event risk day.” The U.S.-Iran meeting could cause sharp market volatility. In the short term, the bias remains slightly bullish toward consolidation, but upside space above 4600 is limited, so chasing higher prices is not advisable. Fellow gold traders: risk management should come first. Strictly control position sizes, and avoid emotional chasing of orders before the direction becomes clear.

Therefore, for today’s trading operations, the following is recommended:

Gold: go long at 4490-4480, stop-loss at 4470, targets at 4600-4650-4700. If it breaks below 4470, then sell on the rebound, with targets at 4350-4300.

Today’s key economic data and events to watch: Thursday, March 26, 2026

Pending: the finance ministers meeting of the Group of Seven

20:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended March 21

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