Strait of Hormuz oil tanker traffic rebounds strongly, supporting Trump's statement

Investing.com——Recently, shipping activities in the Strait of Hormuz have seen a rebound, partly supporting U.S. President Donald Trump’s claim that Iran has allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through as part of ongoing negotiations.

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Trump stated in today’s cabinet meeting that Tehran has permitted 10 oil tankers to pass through this critical waterway as a sign of goodwill.

“They said, to show you that we are sincere and reliable… we will let 8 oil tankers pass… ultimately it will be 10,” he said, describing the move as a “gift” during the negotiations.

Morgan Stanley’s data shows a similar trend, although the time frame is slightly broader. The investment bank reported that as of March 26, 3 oil tankers have passed through the strait, adjusting the previous day’s estimate from zero tankers to 2.

In the past few days, Morgan Stanley estimates that up to 12 vessels have passed through the strait since March 23. This marks a significant increase compared to just 3 vessels recorded in the four days from March 19 to 22.

The rebound in traffic flow comes after a severe disruption related to the escalation of conflict with Iran, with prior concerns that traffic through one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints could almost come to a complete halt.

“The Iranian war has caused the largest geopolitical shock to the energy market since the Gulf War in 1990,” said Amarpreet Singh, a commodities strategist at Barclays, in a report.

While the recent increase is still moderate compared to normal levels, the change in direction is noteworthy for markets closely monitoring further escalation or signs of tentative easing.

The Strait of Hormuz carries a significant share of global oil transport, and even minor changes in traffic flow can have a huge impact on market sentiment.

“A prolonged disruption of the Strait of Hormuz means a daily supply loss of 13-14 million barrels, and at the onset of the conflict, global ground inventories were already tighter than before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Despite record releases from strategic petroleum reserves, there is little buffer space,” Singh added.

This article was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. For more information, please refer to our terms of use.