How is the foreign trade situation this year? Yao Yang responds to the Daily Economic News: The full-year export growth is expected to be no less than 5%, and its contribution to GDP growth may be lower than last year.

Every reporter｜Zhang Huaishui Every editor｜Bi Luming

On March 24, the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026, themed “Shaping a Common Future: New Situations, New Opportunities, New Cooperation,” opened in Boao, Hainan.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, in the first two months of 2026, China’s goods trade exports and imports grew by 18.3% year-on-year, with February exports alone seeing a year-on-year increase of 36.1%, significantly exceeding market expectations. Against the backdrop of domestic demand dominance, what will be the trend of foreign trade this year? What role will foreign trade exports play in the “three drivers” of economic growth?

Yao Yang, Dean of the Advanced Finance Institute at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, told Every reporter (hereinafter referred to as “Every reporter”) that in the first two months of this year, the growth rate of China’s foreign trade exports and imports was indeed too high, and it is clearly not sustainable for the whole year. “For the whole year, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of exports will not be less than 5%. In 2025, China’s goods and services exports and imports contributed 1.7 percentage points to GDP growth, with a contribution rate of 20.9% to GDP growth, and this year’s data may decline a bit.”

Yao Yang further told Every reporter that in 2025, foreign trade exports and imports achieved an unexpected boost to economic growth, returning to the level of the first decade of this century, and according to the laws of China’s economic development, this state is unsustainable. “Last year, China’s trade surplus reached $1.2 trillion, roughly calculated, it ranks around 15th compared to the GDP scale of countries worldwide, which is obviously unsustainable. Therefore, this year, I hope the share of consumption can be increased a bit more.”

The reporter noticed that this year’s government work report lists “striving to build a strong domestic market” as the top priority task, proposing to adhere to domestic demand dominance, coordinate promoting consumption and expanding investment, and expand new space for domestic demand growth.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 48.5186 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% compared to the previous year. Among them, private investment decreased by 6.4%.

As one of the important supports for expanding domestic demand, how to achieve a stop to the decline and stabilize investment in 2026? Yao Yang told Every reporter that two indicators are very important. First, the real estate market needs to stabilize, as the continuous negative growth in real estate has a significant drag on the recovery of domestic demand.

Yao Yang further pointed out that last year, local governments faced certain fiscal pressures. He believes the central government’s goals are clear: first, stabilize the real estate market; second, resolve local government debt risks through special bonds. He believes that in 2026, the efforts in this area can be increased; if the real estate can be stabilized and the “three guarantees” (ensuring basic livelihood, wages, and operational stability) of local governments can be well managed, this year’s basic goal of domestic demand dominance can be achieved.

According to the data released in this year’s government work report, in 2026, it is proposed to arrange 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds for local governments, improve the management of the negative list for special bond projects, and pilot self-examination and self-issuance, with a focus on supporting the construction of major projects, replacing hidden debts, and digesting government arrears.

Every reporter has noted that the scale of special bonds for local governments planned for 2026 is consistent with that of 2025, maintaining a historically high level, reflecting the guidance of continuing to implement a more proactive fiscal policy this year.

Cover image source: AIGC