260328 Creepy Friday

StrawberryIce · 2026-03-28T03:02:35+00:00

The article analyzes the trend of A-shares on Thursday and market sentiment on Friday, pointing out that the Friday morning decline followed by a rebound contradicts expectations, and expressing confusion about the performance of the power and technology sectors. The analysis suggests that the market's strength on Friday may be superficial, and predicts that next week's trend could face the risk of new lows. It also recommends paying attention to rotation opportunities within individual stocks in the power sector. Overall, the market's future trend is judged to be 80% risky and 20% favorable.

StrawberryIce

2026-03-28 03:02:35

Abstract generation in progress

Thoughts on Thursday’s market close [Tao Gu Ba]

Looking at the A-share performance on Thursday, my understanding at the time was that Friday would see a downward trend, breaking new lows, and forming a second leg, leading to a rebound starting in April.

In terms of sectors, the focus was naturally on the continuously strong electricity sector, which has a low correlation with the market’s rise and fall. (The two strongest lines this week were electricity + technology, but since I anticipated market pressure on Friday, I did not consider technology.)

On Friday morning, seeing the sharp declines in U.S. stocks and those in Japan and South Korea added confidence to my Thursday predictions, but A-shares opened low and then surged, which was truly baffling!

The Oddities of Friday
This year’s low trading volume combined with a long upward leg is exactly the opposite of my predictions. Where did the selling pressure go in the absence of active buying?
On such a strong Friday for the market, why did the electricity and technology sectors, which are in sync with the index, not perform? The market chose to rotate for a rebound, indicating a lack of confidence?
The strongest electricity stock recently, Yunnan Energy Holdings, is it a leader or a weak group? If it is a leader, its limit-up timing is too late and didn’t drive the sector; if it is a weak group, then the limit-up at the end of the session suggests that A-shares are strong on the outside but weak on the inside, which does not bode well for next week!
Predicting Next Week: More Bad Than Good
If the market on Friday was genuinely strong, then next week should directly open the path to 4000;
If the market on Friday was falsely strong, then new lows next week are inevitable;
With systemic risks in the market being low, the electricity sector will not be able to avoid fluctuations regardless of market upswings or downturns; the weak can group together, and the strong cannot escape, with expectations of volatility and rotation. The probability of stock rotation within the sector is quite high, and low-cost entries or ambush positions may have a greater chance of success.

My personal subjective judgment is 8 bad to 2 good. What do you think about next week’s market trend?

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