Major news from the Strait of Hormuz! Over 10 billion in major funds rush in to buy! Huabao Capital's Non-Ferrous Metals ETF (159876) surged 2.4% intraday, with Shengxin Lithium Energy and three other stocks hitting the daily limit.

Just now! A major A-share rally! Major indices all turn positive across the board! On March 27, Gold, rare earths, copper and aluminum—and other nonferrous metals industry leaders—were comprehensively covered by Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876), which rose as much as 2.41% intraday on-exchange; it is currently up 2.01%.

As for constituent stocks, three stocks—Yunnan Germanium Industry, Yongxing Materials, and Shengxin Lithium Energy—hit the daily limit. Guocheng Mining rose more than 7%, while stocks such as Zhongkuang Resources, Ganfeng Lithium, Chifeng Gold, China Rare Earth, and others also followed higher.

On the funding side, as of the time of publication, the nonferrous metals sector received net inflows of 10.328 billion yuan from leading/primary funds. The amount attracted into the sector is ranked first among 31 Shenwan first-level industries!

On the news front, U.S. President Trump will delay by another 10 days the timing of airstrikes on Iran’s energy facilities, but he denied that he is rushing to reach an agreement, saying that the U.S. military will continue bombing Iran. If the U.S. and Iran reach the “right agreement,” the Strait of Hormuz will be opened. He also said Iran would allow 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, as a “gift.”

Perhaps because Trump said he would delay by another 10 days the strikes on Iran’s power plants, international oil prices have seen a sharp surge; the Brent crude oil futures decline widened to 1%, and spot gold has risen—currently above $4,400 per ounce.

CMB International Research said that the future trend of gold depends heavily on how the U.S.-Iran war evolves, and can be analyzed in three scenarios:

Scenario 1: The strait blockade becomes long-term. If the conflict escalates and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for the long term, oil prices will keep soaring, potentially triggering concerns about stagflation like those in the 1970s, and even shaking market confidence in the U.S. government’s fiscal credit. In this case, after experiencing a short-term tightening shock, gold—thanks to its “sell the U.S. + hedge against stagflation” attributes—will see an opportunity to go long.

Scenario 2: The U.S. side leads with a quick, decisive outcome. If the U.S. quickly gains the upper hand, or if the U.S. and Iran reach a ceasefire relatively quickly, oil prices could rise and then fall back. At that time, rate-hike expectations would be adjusted. Gold is likely to shake off the current downward trend and return to the original track of moderate uptrends.

Scenario 3: Only inflation, not stagflation. If high oil prices only push up inflation, but the U.S. economy shows resilience (similar to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict), the market will continue to price in rate-hike expectations, and gold will most likely enter a downward channel.

In summary, the short-term market is pricing the most certain inflation trade; the downside risk for gold is still being released. Over the medium term, we need to watch how long the war lasts and how it affects the economy—whether persistently high oil prices will create a “stag” shock to the economy is the key to whether gold can reverse.

CITIC Futures said that from a medium- to long-term perspective, the center of gravity for precious metal prices will keep moving upward. On one hand, the geopolitical risk center of gravity is rising, and global political-economic order restructuring is still ongoing; on the other hand, market concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy are still intensifying. Meanwhile, Trump’s frequent interventions in the independence of the Federal Reserve mean that the de-dollarization process will continue to advance, and global central banks will also continue increasing gold reserves. Overall, gold’s long-term uptrend remains unchanged.

**【The nonferrous metals boom is here—an unstoppable “super cycle”】【】

Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876) and its linked funds (A share: 017140, C share: 017141)—the target index comprehensively covers sectors such as copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium. It also covers different phases of business cycles, including precious metals (defensive hedging), strategic metals (growth), industrial metals (recovery), and more. This full-category coverage makes it easier to capture the sector’s beta opportunities. At the same time, this ETF is a margin trading and short-selling-eligible product, making it an efficient tool to get exposure to the nonferrous metals sector with one click.

As of the end of February, Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876) has the latest size of 2.427 billion yuan, with average daily trading value over the past month of more than 100 million yuan. Among the three ETF products in the whole market tracking the same benchmark index, both its size and liquidity are ranked first.

Note: The prior on-exchange abbreviation of Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876) was Huaxilongtou ETF.

Reminder: Market volatility may be relatively high recently; short-term gains or losses do not indicate future performance. Investors should invest rationally based on their own capital conditions and risk tolerance, and pay close attention to position sizing and risk management.

Risk disclosure: Huabao Nonferrous ETF passively tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index. The index base date is 2013.12.31, and it was published on 2015.7.13. The index’s cumulative returns over the most recent 5 complete years are: 2021, 35.89%; 2022, -19.22%; 2023, -10.43%; 2024, 2.96%; 2025, 91.67%. The composition of index constituent stocks is adjusted from time to time according to the index compilation rules; the backtested historical performance does not predict the index’s future performance. The constituent stocks shown in this article are only for demonstration purposes; descriptions of individual stocks do not constitute any form of investment advice, nor do they represent any holdings information or trading developments of any fund managed by the management company. The risk level assessed for this fund is R3—medium risk; it is suitable for balanced (C3) investors and above. Any suitability matching opinions should be subject to the sales institutions. Any information appearing in this article (including, but not limited to, individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, and any other forms of statements) is for reference only; investors are responsible for any investment actions they independently decide. Also, any viewpoints, analyses, and forecasts in this article do not constitute investment advice of any kind to readers, nor do they bear any responsibility for direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the content of this article. Investing in funds involves risk; a fund’s past performance does not indicate its future performance; the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of this fund’s performance; investors should invest cautiously.

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责任编辑：杨赐