JPMorgan: Bitcoin outperformed gold and silver during the Iran war, and market sentiment is improving

JPMorgan analysts have stated that during the Iran war, Bitcoin outperformed gold and silver, showing signs of increased inflows and activity, while precious metals experienced significant outflows and position liquidations.

The analyst team led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou reported on Wednesday that gold has fallen about 15% so far this month due to rising interest rates and a stronger dollar putting pressure on “previously crowded positions.” The analysts noted that gold and silver had both surged to record highs earlier this year—gold prices nearing $5,500 per ounce and silver prices approaching $120 per ounce—making them susceptible to profit-taking and position closeouts once market conditions changed.

The analysts said that in the first two and a half weeks of March, nearly $11 billion flowed out of gold exchange-traded funds, while the outflow from silver ETFs reversed all inflows since last summer. In contrast, Bitcoin showed net inflows during the same period, indicating strength relative to traditional safe-haven assets.

Bitcoin Momentum Signals Are Recovering

The analysts cited data from Chainalysis indicating that cryptocurrency activity in Iran surged after the war broke out, with citizens transferring funds from local exchanges to self-custody wallets and international platforms. The analysts pointed out that Bitcoin’s borderless nature, self-custody capability, and around-the-clock trading make it a preferred tool for capital movement during times of economic instability, currency pressure, and capital controls.

Institutional holdings also show a shift. The institutional futures position index compiled by JPMorgan based on changes in open interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange indicates that gold and silver positions continued to accumulate from the end of last year until early 2026, after which they sharply declined since January, suggesting that institutional investors are taking profits. In contrast, Bitcoin futures positions have remained relatively stable in recent weeks.

Momentum-driven traders seem to have amplified this trend. The analysts stated that position signals related to momentum strategies, such as those used by commodity trading advisors, show that gold and silver have shifted from “overbought levels to below neutral,” indicating that forced liquidations have played a role in the recent price declines. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s momentum signals are recovering from “oversold levels toward neutral,” suggesting that market sentiment is improving.

The liquidity conditions of various assets have also changed. The analysts noted that according to the Hui-Heubel ratio, which measures market breadth and liquidity, gold has historically shown stronger market liquidity than silver and Bitcoin. However, this dynamic has recently reversed. The analysts stated that gold’s liquidity condition has deteriorated, Bitcoin currently shows better market breadth, while silver’s liquidity has declined more sharply, which could exacerbate its price volatility.

“In summary, the outflow from silver ETFs has completely erased all prior inflows since last summer. The deterioration in gold’s liquidity condition has brought its market breadth below that of Bitcoin,” the analysts concluded. “Reports indicate that cryptocurrency activity in Iran has surged, highlighting the important role cryptocurrencies play as a safe-haven asset for citizens of countries facing economic and currency instability and geopolitical pressures.”