Zimbabwe's export ban suddenly escalates! What is the outlook for lithium prices? The Battery ETF Huaxin Wealth once rose over 3%, hitting two consecutive gains! The A-share earnings season is approaching, and the performance of the battery industry chain takes the lead.

Ask AI · How Zimbabwe’s lithium export ban escalation affects global supply chains?

On March 26, A-share markets wobbled and trended weaker, while the new energy sector surged higher against the trend! As of 13:08, the Battery ETF from E Fund—E Fund (159796), which leads among peers in size and has the lowest fee tier—rose and then pulled back, up 0.7%, once surging more than 3% intraday, with trading value nearing 300 million yuan, challenging a two-day winning streak.

The underlying index constituent stocks for E Fund Battery ETF (159796) saw mixed moves: Enjie Co., Ltd. rose more than 3%, Tinci Materials rose more than 2%, CATL and Sanhua Intelligent Controls rose more than 1%, while Sungrow and Gree Meiri Technology & Industry (Gemini) dipped slightly.

【Top 10 constituent stocks of the underlying index for E Fund Battery ETF (159796)】

As of 13:09, constituent stocks are shown for display only and do not constitute investment advice

Late on March 23, global attention in the lithium industry once again turned to Zimbabwe, an African lithium resource powerhouse. A major policy development that exceeded market expectations shook the industry—the country’s lithium product export ban has entered a severe escalation, shifting abruptly from the previously planned ban on exporting lithium concentrates in 2027 to an indefinite suspension of all exports of raw ore and lithium concentrates starting from late February, with no transition period, no exemption list, and even covering all in-transit cargoes that have not yet cleared departure. The tightening力度 is far beyond what the market had anticipated.

According to data, since the price low point in June 2025, as of March 23, 2026, the average market price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 140,000 yuan/ton, up cumulatively 140.1%; the average market price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 157,000 yuan/ton, up cumulatively 160.4%.

【Lithium carbonate is likely to rise but hard to fall, with price transmission flowing to battery-industry downstream companies】

From a fundamentals perspective, a research note from CITIC Securities, citing SMM data, shows that the pace of destocking domestic lithium carbonate has slowed. Weekly inventories fell by 414 tons to below 99,000 tons. Inventories across each link are at low levels, and smelters’ inventories are even at a new three-year low. Supply increases slightly, but due to factors such as Zimbabwe’s export ban, future supply elasticity remains limited. Demand continues to recover: demand for energy storage and power batteries remains favorable, and the situation in the Middle East also boosts Europe’s demand for household energy storage. It is expected that over the next quarter, low inventories will become the core contradiction, and lithium prices will be easy to rise but hard to fall.

【Price recovery transmits directly to corporate earnings】, driving a rebound in the performance of A-share lithium battery sector companies. At the beginning of 2026, more than ten A-share companies in the lithium battery sector released their 2025 annual performance forecasts in a concentrated manner, and all achieved year-on-year positive net profit growth or turned losses into profits, confirming that the industry’s earnings turning point has already appeared. For the battery sector represented by E Fund Battery ETF (159796), the forecast growth rate of attributable net profits for 2025–2026 is 41% and 37%, respectively.

【Top 10 constituent stocks of the underlying index for E Fund Battery ETF (159796)】

As of 2026/3/26

【March battery market demand recovery: whether a new round of power battery market is on the horizon, with booming supply and demand on both sides of energy storage】

Dongguan Securities believes that in March, lithium battery market demand recovered relatively quickly, and the industry chain’s pre-planned production for March rebounded noticeably month over month. On the power battery side, as post-holiday auto “trade-in” subsidy implementation details are fully rolled out, spring auto show promotions start, and new vehicle models from automakers are gradually launched, it is expected to gradually drive the release of a new wave of demand. On the energy storage side, maintaining both strong supply and demand, and with domestic new energy storage capacity value-of-electricity price compensation policies encouraging the sector, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further bolster energy storage demand. Adjustments to export VAT refund policies for battery products have sparked short-term export rush behavior. For the full year, overall demand growth for lithium batteries is expected to remain optimistic. Material-side capacity expansion is relatively cautious. The supply-demand structure along the industrial chain continues to improve, and price trends across multiple links are expected to move upward—rising both in volume and price is in sight. With the ongoing commercialization progress of solid-state batteries, dense implementation of pilot lines for fully solid-state batteries is expected. Development of solid-state batteries brings incremental demand that drives iteration and upgrades across material and equipment stages for the industrial chain. (Source: Dongguan Securities 20260313 “2-month battery sales maintained growth year on year”)

【How to allocate to the battery sector with a “favorable upcycle + abundant catalysts”?】

The battery sector’s own underlying trend, technical catalysts, and other factors are expected to support the continuation of strong stock price performance. However, the overall battery sector industrial chain is long and involves complex links; with abundant catalysts, individual stock investing is more challenging. Consider “dimensionality reduction” through index investing to capture the battery sector’s historic breakout opportunity faster!

ETF investment can be taken in two steps: first, pick an index—choose the one that best matches the current themes such as the energy storage boom and solid-state battery catalysts; second, pick an ETF—choose an ETF that has a large size, good liquidity, and low investment cost.

E Fund Battery ETF (159796) has a significantly leading energy storage content among its peers, with high solid-state battery content! Looking at the battery sector’s various sub-segments from today’s perspective, the energy storage segment benefits from overseas demand exceeding expectations. The supply-demand relationship has reversed rapidly, and the pricing logic for the sub-segment is strong. You can focus on E Fund Battery ETF (159796)’s underlying index, whose energy storage content reaches 18%, far ahead of peer indices, and will fully benefit from the breakout of the energy storage sub-segment! In addition, as a new technology, solid-state batteries have continuously emerging hotspot catalysts and enormous growth potential. E Fund Battery ETF (159796)’s underlying index has solid-state battery content of 45%, fully benefiting from growth opportunities brought by new technological breakthroughs in solid-state batteries!

Note: Energy storage includes CICC four-level industries such as PV equipment, grid automation, hydropower, and other energy storage equipment. Solid-state battery content is based on whether solid-state batteries are included in the popular concept sub-sector among constituent stock industries, as of 20260227

In addition, the industry with the highest weight in E Fund Battery ETF (159796)’s underlying index is battery chemicals, with a weight as high as 32%, which is expected to comprehensively benefit from the upstream material price recovery driving an improvement in overall industry prosperity across the entire value chain.

Note: Industry classification statistics by Shenwan third-level industries, as of 20260227

And when compared with the top 10 constituent stocks, E Fund Battery ETF (159796)’s underlying index focuses on the two golden segments of energy storage and power batteries. The third-largest weighted stock—an inverter PV inverter leader—accounts for 7.8%. Other peer indices do not include this constituent stock. In addition, it also covers advantaged companies such as global power battery leaders and solid-state battery pioneers.

Note: Data source from the website of CSI Indices and the website of Guozheng Indices, as of 20260227

E Fund Battery ETF (159796)’s underlying index accurately depicts three core technological directions in the battery field: battery materials, power batteries, and energy storage batteries. Energy metals such as lithium and cobalt, as well as automakers’ exposure, are relatively low, which reduces the impact of the cyclical nature of energy metals such as lithium and cobalt and the consumption-related characteristics of automaker companies on the timing of investment in the battery industry. At the same time, it proactively targets the core driving forces of industrial technology iteration and demand breakouts!

The E Fund Battery ETF (159796) is leading in size and is the lowest fee tier at current levels. Among ETFs tracking the CSI Battery Thematic Index (CS Battery Index), E Fund Battery ETF (159796) is far ahead of its peers in size! In addition, the management fee for E Fund Battery ETF (159796) is only 0.15% per year, the lowest tier among its peers, aiming to provide investors with a good investment experience! For off-exchange investment, you can consider the linked fund (Class A: 012862; Class C: 012863), and capture the “second spring” opportunity in the battery sector with one click!

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