Since the outbreak of the conflict, Iran has been earning an average of $170 million more per day from oil sales.

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Source: Financial Link

Financial Link, March 27 (Editor: Xiaoxiang) According to industry insiders’ estimates, since the start of the U.S.-Iran war, Iran has likely been earning tens of millions of dollars in additional revenue daily from its oil sales.

As Iran becomes the only major oil exporter in the Middle East capable of using the Strait of Hormuz, the prices of the crude oil it sells have surged, benefiting Iran’s finances.

Unlike all other Gulf oil-producing countries, Iran’s oil can currently still smoothly transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and its export volume remains steady. Industry estimates suggest that Iran’s crude oil exports this month have maintained pre-war levels, approximately 1.6 million barrels per day. Vessels carrying Iranian crude continue to load at the Khark Island terminal and cross the Strait of Hormuz out of the Persian Gulf—recent shipping activities are even accelerating.

This stands in stark contrast to the situation of other Gulf oil-producing countries that are facing significant export blockades.

According to export estimate data from Tankertrackers.com and the price of Iran’s flagship oil “Iranian Light,” Iran has been able to earn approximately $139 million daily from sales of this flagship oil so far in March, up from $115 million in February. This also means that since the outbreak of the conflict, Iran has been able to earn at least about $24 million more per day from oil sales (approximately 166 million yuan).

Meanwhile, compared to the international benchmark Brent crude, the price of Iranian Light has also seen a significant increase—earlier this week, its discount to Brent narrowed to $2.10 per barrel, the lowest level in nearly a year. Before the outbreak of the war, this discount had exceeded $10.

A higher price per barrel is crucial for Iran, which has recently suffered significant damage from U.S. and Israeli airstrikes and must invest heavily to rebuild and support its severely battered economy. Additionally, Iran’s retaliatory strikes in the Middle East have consumed a large amount of weaponry that urgently needs replenishing.

Khark Island Remains a Key Hub

Industry insiders point out that while Iraq and Kuwait are forced to make significant production cuts and the UAE and Saudi Arabia struggle to find alternative export routes, Iran continues to load tankers and sail them out of the Persian Gulf.

Iran’s main export hub, Khark Island, has so far not been targeted by U.S. strikes—the U.S. has only attacked military targets there. Satellite image search tool Copernicus Browser shows that from March 2 to March 22, there have almost always been Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) docked at the port loading cargo.

Moreover, shipping activities seem to be accelerating—images from March 2 show only one super tanker docked at Khark Island, while images from March 7 and 17 show two ships loading cargo. The most recent photo taken last Sunday shows two VLCCs docked, with a third seemingly just leaving the loading facility.

Iran is also exporting crude oil from its Jask terminal, located outside the critical chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz. A satellite image from March 5 shows a super tanker approaching the loading buoy at that facility. A second image taken three days later shows the same vessel docked at the buoy.

Crude oil transportation from Jask is typically not frequent; since the terminal was officially opened in 2021, only five vessels have been loaded there.

Last weekend, U.S. President Trump threatened to target Iran’s energy infrastructure if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, since this week, he has repeatedly walked back that statement—on Thursday, Trump stated that at the request of the Iranian government, the deadline for attacking Iranian energy facilities has been extended by 10 days to April 6 to avoid escalating the conflict.

The U.S. Treasury also approved a 30-day authorization on March 20, local time, allowing the delivery and sale of vessels loaded with crude oil and petroleum products sourced from Iran. The new permit allows for the sale of Iranian crude oil and petroleum products loaded onto vessels as of March 20.

Analysts point out that although the new exemptions related to Iranian crude oil from the U.S. may not have attracted new buyers beyond existing clients for now, it has undoubtedly driven up the price of Iranian crude oil, narrowing its discount to Brent crude further.

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Editor: Zhao Siyuan