U.S. Bond Market: Treasury Bonds Rise, 20-Year Treasury Continues Issuance with Strong Demand

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U.S. Treasury futures steadily rose during the American trading session, supported by strong demand for the $13 billion 20-year Treasury reissue and relatively stable oil prices, which closed up about 2.5% during the day. The yield curve flattened, thanks to a more pronounced bull flattening trend in UK bonds.

Just after 3 PM New York time, U.S. long-term bond yields dipped by as much as 2 basis points, with the 2-year to 10-year Treasury yield spread narrowing by about 1.5 basis points. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was around 4.2%, down 1.5 basis points during the day, while UK bonds outperformed by nearly 6 basis points for that maturity.

The U.S. Treasury’s $13 billion 20-year bond reissue had a winning yield 0.7 basis points lower than the trading levels before issuance. Auction metrics were strong, with primary dealers receiving a 9.2% allocation, down from previous levels; indirect bidders’ allocation rose to 69.25%, while direct bidders’ allocation fell to 21.6%; the bid-to-cover ratio was 2.76 times, consistent with recent averages.

During the U.S. morning session, as crude oil narrowed previous gains, European bonds rose, providing support for U.S. Treasuries. However, with Iran’s continued attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, WTI crude futures still closed higher during the day.

The dollar swap spreads continued to widen strongly on Monday, with long-term swap spreads leading the charge. On Monday, the 30-year dollar swap spread rose by nearly 4 basis points, marking the largest single-day increase since April.

As of 3:25 PM New York time, the 2-year Treasury yield was at 3.6673%;

The 5-year Treasury yield was at 3.7824%;

The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.1965%;

The 30-year Treasury yield was at 4.8472%;

The spread between the 5-year and 30-year Treasury yields was at 106.31 basis points;

The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields was at 52.71 basis points.

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Editor: Ding Wenwu

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