CICC's A-shares absorb and merge Dongxing and Cinda

Failure Probability Analysis:

This merger involves CICC A+H, Dongxing, and Xinda Sifang. The process is particularly lengthy, and any failure in one step will lead to the failure of this merger event (headache…).

The actual controllers of CICC, Dongxing, and Xinda are all Central Huijin, which greatly increases the probability of a successful merger.

I believe:

The probability of success for this merger is slightly higher, but not as high as imagined; do not blindly trust xx will, there are cases of state-owned enterprise mergers failing:

• In June 2025, Haiguang Information’s merger with Zhongke Shuguang failed, with the latter being the controlling shareholder, and the actual controller being the Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, reason unknown (possibly related to taxes, as some shares need to be cancelled).
• In January 2021, Chengfa Environment’s merger with Qidi Environment failed, the former’s actual controller being the Henan Provincial Department of Finance, while the latter had no actual controller; the failure reason was that Qidi Environment was under investigation and no longer met the restructuring management regulations.
• In August 2012, Zhongbai Group’s merger with Wuhan Zhongshang failed; both were Wuhan state-owned assets, and the A-share market was sluggish from 2011 to 2012, with stock prices significantly below cash options, leading to a high vote rejection in the shareholders’ meeting.
• In May 2012, China National Pharmaceutical’s merger with Tianfang Pharmaceutical failed; both were central enterprises, with the same failure reason as above. Later, a second merger was successful.
• In December 2010, Shandong Iron and Steel’s merger with Laigang Co. failed; both were Shandong state-owned assets, with the same failure reason as above. However, both ultimately succeeded in merging. (Search on Baidu says there were three attempts, the first two failed, the third succeeded; specifics not verified.)
• In November 2008, Yuntianhua’s merger with Yunnan Salt Chemical (Yunnan Energy Investment) and *ST Malong (Yunmei Energy) failed; all three were Yunnan state-owned assets.

In the past two months, CICC’s stock price has been near cash options, and the securities sector has been weaker than the broader market, with the CSRC industry index (883171) nearing the trigger price for a downgrade. Consequently, during the market crash on the 23rd, all four stocks saw a steep decline, showing no defensive characteristics. In panic, three stocks (excluding CICC H) exhibited accelerated downward trends.

I believe:

The market is always right, and the market’s concerns are very reasonable. If the stock price does not rise above cash options in the future, the probability of failure is very high; conversely, it will succeed (do not reverse cause and effect). A similar reference is Xiangcai Co.'s merger with Dazhihui (see the chart below).

![](https://img-cdn.gateio.im/social/moments-2a7a898dea-394949dec1-8b7abd-ceda62)

Pay attention to several key time points:

On March 31, 2026, the financial reports of the three companies, whether the board of directors and annual shareholders’ meeting will have relevant proposals for review, I believe the probability is low;

CICC usually holds its annual shareholders’ meeting around June each year, and may hold an extraordinary shareholders’ meeting around October.

【Important Statement and Disclaimer】

The content of this article represents the author’s independent views and does not represent the position of any other person or institution. The analysis in this article is based on public information and may no longer be accurate or valid due to changes in circumstances or other factors after publication; it does not constitute investment advice or operational basis. The market has risks, decisions must be cautious, and investors should make their own judgments and bear corresponding risks.