The probability of Israel launching an attack on Yemen before March 31, 2026, on Polymarket has increased significantly.

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of “Israel launching strikes against Yemen before March 31, 2026” on Polymarket has significantly increased.

The current probability is 60%, with an average probability of 18.1% over the past 7 days.

On March 28, 2026, the Houthi armed forces announced a ballistic missile attack against southern Israel. This is the first time the Houthis have directly taken military action against Israeli territory since the recent outbreak of conflict between Iran and the U.S. and Israel.

The organization claims to have struck “sensitive military facilities” in southern Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that a missile was detected coming from the direction of Yemen and stated that it was successfully intercepted, with no reports of casualties at this time.

Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree stated that this action is in response to U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iranian, Lebanese, Iraqi, and Palestinian targets, emphasizing that their operations will continue until “the aggression stops.”

Houthi officials have recently issued multiple warnings that blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of their “viable options.” Analysts are concerned that following restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is also significantly blocked, it would cut off key oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) routes from the Middle East to Europe and Asia.

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, noticing changes before pricing.