The probability of Israel launching an attack on Yemen before March 31, 2026, on Polymarket has increased significantly.

According to a report from CoinWorld, the Odaily Seer prophet channel monitoring shows that the probability of “Israel launching strikes against Yemen before March 31, 2026” on Polymarket has significantly increased. The current probability is 60%, compared to an average of 18.1% over the past 7 days. On March 28, 2026, the Houthi armed group announced that it had launched a ballistic missile attack on southern Israel. This marks the first time the Houthis have directly taken military action against Israeli territory since the recent outbreak of conflict between Iran and the US. The organization claims to have targeted “sensitive military facilities” in southern Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that they detected a missile fired from the direction of Yemen and stated that it was successfully intercepted, with no reports of casualties at this time. Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree stated that this action was a response to the military operations by the US and Israel against targets in Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and Palestine, emphasizing that their actions would continue until “the aggression stops.” Houthi officials have recently warned that blocking the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is one of their “viable options.” Analysts are concerned that following restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, if the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is also subjected to substantial blockage, it would cut off critical oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) routes from the Middle East to Europe and Asia. The Odaily Seer prophet channel continues to monitor the prediction market, observing changes before pricing.