Odaily Exclusive Interview with Bitwise: BTC May Reach $95,000 by the End of the Year

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | jk

As Bitcoin’s price has halved from its historical peak and geopolitical shadows loom over the global market, are institutional funds retreating or quietly accumulating? On March 24, Odaily Planet Daily conducted an on-site interview with Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise Asset Management, in New York.

Bitwise currently manages approximately $15 billion in assets, making it the largest provider of cryptocurrency index funds globally and one of the main issuers of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana ETFs. In this interview, he provided key driving logic for Bitcoin’s price in 2026, specific forecasts for the year-end price, discussed the “great migration” of positions occurring between retail and institutional investors, and talked about the role of the Asian market in the global crypto landscape.

Below is the transcript of the interview:

Odaily: Today at the DAS summit in New York, we are honored to have Ryan from Bitwise with us. Before we start the questions, could you please introduce yourself and give our Asian audience a brief introduction?

Ryan: Sure. I am Ryan Rasmussen, the Head of Research at Bitwise Asset Management. We are a global cryptocurrency asset management firm primarily providing public and private funds as well as staking solutions for institutional investors. Currently, we manage approximately $15 billion in assets, with operations in the United States, Europe, and Asia. We are one of the largest issuers in the fields of Solana ETF, Bitcoin ETF, and Ethereum ETF, and we also manage various index funds. We have the largest cryptocurrency index fund in the world.

Odaily: What are the biggest influencing factors on Bitcoin’s price in 2026? Could you rank them and roughly provide weightings, such as the inflow and outflow of structured products from traditional U.S. financial institutions, statements and policies from Trump and his family, the awakening and selling of long-held whales, the survival pressure of miners, the aftermath of past hacking incidents, etc.?

Ryan: The biggest long-term driver of Bitcoin’s price is institutional adoption. The reason is that for the past fifteen years, most institutional investors globally have not been able to access Bitcoin or other crypto assets. With the launch of the U.S. Bitcoin ETF in January 2024 and the recent introduction of ETFs for Ethereum, Solana, etc., we are seeing institutional investors gradually catching up with Bitcoin investments. However, this does not mean that those allocations have truly begun: in fact, many investors we have communicated with, whether in the U.S., Europe, or Asia, have not yet started investing in Bitcoin. Therefore, I believe the biggest driver is the speed at which institutional investors begin to allocate Bitcoin on a large scale. I think this is already happening in 2026, and there will be more progress in the second half of 2026, which will be a common driver for both the short and long term, stemming from the demand of those institutional investors who have yet to enter the market.

Odaily: Can you talk specifically about the weightings?

Ryan: This is indeed a very interesting topic. Investors who started allocating with us a few years ago initially allocated about 1%, while today most clients have a crypto asset allocation of around 5%. The most interesting thing is that those who are starting to make initial allocations now are not beginning at 1% but at 2% to 3%, while many long-term clients who have been working with us are already around 5%. So I would say the typical allocation for new investors is about 2%, and existing investors with crypto exposure are around 5%. But when you consider the wealth controlled by global institutional investors, this number is quite significant—1% to 2% to 5% of $100 trillion in wealth exceeds the current overall market capitalization of Bitcoin. That’s why institutional allocations will ultimately dominate Bitcoin’s price in the long term, and why this is such an important factor.

Odaily: Is it still possible for Bitcoin to experience a significant drop? Could we be at the bottom of this cycle?

Ryan: Our view is that we are closer to Bitcoin’s bottom now, and the downward space is becoming less significant. If Bitcoin remains in a sideways trend for a few more months, I wouldn’t be surprised, as macro factors are really dominating at the moment—conflicts in the Middle East, many things happening in South America, and it’s hard to say what will happen in Cuba in the short term. Earlier this year, we also witnessed the situation in Venezuela. So there is a lot of macro and geopolitical uncertainty, which I believe puts all risk assets and financial assets under pressure.

Once macro uncertainties stabilize and geopolitical uncertainties also stabilize, I believe we will see Bitcoin and other crypto assets start to accelerate upward. But I do believe that in the coming months, Bitcoin and the crypto market will largely remain in a sideways trend. In the second half of the year, we believe we will see a significant inflow of institutional funds through ETFs, pushing prices higher and ending the year at a price above the beginning of the year, which suggests Bitcoin will be around $95,000 by year-end, representing about a 40% increase from today’s price. We believe we are in a crypto bear market that has lasted about a year, and our judgment is that Bitcoin will close higher by year-end, with 2027 being a very positive year.

Odaily: From last year’s ATH to this year’s price cut in half, who do you think is accumulating, and who is selling?

Ryan: What we are observing is a switch from retail to institutional investors, a one-time shift that is having a profound impact on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, as institutional investors are entering this market through ETFs and other funds. We see that the regulatory environment in the U.S. and abroad is becoming clearer, making institutional investors more comfortable in making allocation decisions.

At the same time, retail investors have gone through many cycles of crypto booms and busts. Those early investors who entered when Bitcoin was $1, $10, or $100 saw it rise to $125,000, and they may have also seen it drop back to $70,000. Now, they are ready to take some chips off the table. This is actually very typical of what happens when private companies eventually go public: early investors finally see an IPO and are ready to cash in, while new shareholders come in to take part in the company’s equity. I think that’s exactly what’s happening in the crypto market now: early investors primarily comprised of retail are transferring their positions to institutional investors who have a long-term orientation and systematic operations. They are not looking at a one, two, or three-year horizon; they have a five, ten, or twenty-year perspective.

To summarize: currently, those selling are retail investors, while those buying are institutions. This switch is net positive for the dynamics of the crypto market, as institutional investors do not have such strong behavioral biases; they are more systematic and focused on the long term.

Odaily: In the current context of sudden global changes, BTC has disappointed some investors’ expectations as a safe haven. Compared to traditional assets like gold, silver, and oil, why should people still believe in Bitcoin?

Ryan: I believe that from a long-term perspective, Bitcoin’s prospects have never been stronger than they are now. The largest financial institutions globally are gravitating towards Bitcoin. We are in daily communication with investors, from financial advisors to family offices, hedge funds, endowment funds, pension funds, and even sovereign wealth funds, all of whom are studying crypto assets and Bitcoin. I believe this is a journey that will take years to complete; if one expects Bitcoin to transition from a niche asset to a mature global asset in just fifteen years of history, that seems rather short-sighted.

What Bitcoin brings to a portfolio is similar to what gold, oil, and other commodities bring: a significant amount of diversification benefits and very low correlation with other asset classes. If you look at Bitcoin’s role in a portfolio (assuming you add 5% Bitcoin to a traditional mix of stocks, bonds, and commodities), it will enhance risk-adjusted returns because it has almost no correlation with other assets and has very strong risk-return characteristics over the long term. But investing in crypto assets must be viewed in the long term, eliminating emotional biases; only then can you truly start to see the value of crypto assets in a portfolio.

Odaily: Does Bitwise currently have operations in Asia? What are the main activities?

Ryan: Yes, we have operations in Asia. I personally have been to Singapore multiple times over the past few years. Our institutional partnership team has also visited Hong Kong, Singapore, and other Asian markets. We have people on the ground who can meet with banks, clients, family offices, and various institutions at any time to help them gain exposure to crypto assets through private funds, SMA, public funds, and staking products.

Speaking of staking, we recently expanded significantly into Asia by acquiring Chorus One. Chorus One is one of the largest staking service providers globally. We see a lot of interest and demand in Asia, especially with many family offices proactively reaching out to us for exposure; there are also many banks contacting us, wanting to understand how their wealth management and private banking clients can access crypto assets. We are very excited about the growth prospects and have a team stationed locally. Interested parties are welcome to contact us at any time.

Odaily: Are there any significant differences you can share between Asia and other regions?

Ryan: The differences are substantial. In terms of how crypto assets are perceived, the U.S., Europe, and Asia are very different markets.

U.S. institutional investors have lagged behind in crypto assets because the U.S. has been very adversarial regarding crypto assets from a regulatory perspective. The previous government from 2020 to 2024 actively suppressed the crypto industry at every level, from the White House to regulatory agencies. We now see that this has changed. This means that institutional investors have been delayed for many years because they were concerned about engaging with assets that the government might be trying to eliminate through regulatory means.

Europe is slightly different, although European institutional investors are adopting crypto assets at a slower pace than Asia.

In Asia, we see a lot of enthusiasm for participation, and I believe Asia is actually more forward-looking in adopting and investing in this technology than is commonly recognized. This is also part of why we find expanding into this market so exciting and attractive.