SpaceX or OpenAI IPO: Which Private Company Is the Better Bet?

Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Sam Altman’s OpenAI are both advancing toward major 2026 IPOs (initial public offerings), with SpaceX closer to filing and stronger near-term financials. OpenAI shows explosive growth potential but faces profitability hurdles. Neither has filed yet, though reports position SpaceX as the largest listing ever.

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SpaceX Targets $1.75 Trillion Valuation

SpaceX plans an unconventional IPO, potentially raising $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation, fueled by Starlink’s 10 million+ subscribers and Starship progress. Notably, Musk plans to allocate up to 30% of shares to retail investors, far exceeding the typical 5-10%.

Musk has also scheduled an April investor briefing to address IPO uncertainties. Investors await details on SpaceX’s valuation pitch following its xAI acquisition, amid ambitious plans for AI data centers in space, a moon base, and third-generation Starship advancements that demand massive funding and tech leaps. Rocket launches and Starlink drive most of SpaceX’s revenue, with total revenue nearing $20 billion in 2026. xAI contributes under $1 billion, and its $17.5 billion debt is also expected to be fully repaid ahead of IPO, according to insiders.

Funds like ARK Venture (ARKVX), holding nearly 18% in SpaceX and delivering 63% returns last year, underscore strong institutional confidence as proxy trades like Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) and Fundrise Innovation Fund (VCX) gain traction ahead of the offering.

OpenAI’s Ad Pilot Hits $100M ARR

OpenAI’s ads pilot program has rapidly scaled to over $100 million in annualized recurring revenue (ARR) within two months of launch, diversifying beyond subscriptions via non-intrusive ChatGPT integrations. With ChatGPT’s 910 million weekly users and enterprise adoption, it eyes a Q4 2026 IPO at $850 billion. OpenAI secured an extra $10 billion in funding this week, pushing its record round to over $120 billion at a $730 billion pre-money valuation. Backed by Microsoft (MSFT), Andreessen Horowitz, and others, this caps private fundraising ahead of a major 2026 IPO.

At the same time, OpenAI flagged Microsoft as its top risk in a pre-IPO document, citing heavy reliance on the tech giant for financing and compute resources like Azure. This disclosure highlights potential disruptions if the partnership sours, alongside other risks like chip shortages and lawsuits, ahead of the IPO.

OpenAI’s ad success counters projected $14-17 billion losses, boosting IPO appeal. It funds massive AI infrastructure while grabbing a share of the booming generative AI ad market.

Ending Thoughts

SpaceX edges out with its profitability path, earlier timeline, and tangible revenue from launches and Starlink, versus OpenAI’s high-burn AI bets. Proven milestones like orbital data centers outshine speculative AGI pursuits.

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