Analysis of rebound under reduced volume and recovery, and analysis of breakout stocks following breakage and reversal of limit-up blocks~~

Hello everyone, happy weekend. Today’s market pulled back and rebounded at 3850 points as expected. The funds in this area are still shrinking today, and since it’s Friday, the capital is relatively cautious. We’ll see how the news from the weekend in the Persian Gulf affects the market. There has also been talk of the Federal Reserve having expectations of interest rate hikes. If there really are expectations for rate hikes and the conflict in the Persian Gulf has not been peacefully resolved, then the market may still face one last big drop next week, which is at the 3796 level. Right now, it’s all about the big institutions. They have a lot of capital on hand, and if necessary, during the final drop, large funds will come in to support the market. [淘股吧]

Today’s market profitability is still quite average, with the electric synergy (core main line) sector experiencing high-level divergence and switching between high and low. Huadian Liaoning Energy hit a limit down, while some mid-tier stocks in the Huadian cycle collectively fell, and even Liaoning Energy hit a limit down. New Energy Taishan has had four consecutive limit ups (cables + central enterprises) becoming a benchmark, Guangxi Energy (green electricity + state-owned assets) received funding, and Jinko Power had two consecutive limit ups (thermal power transformation) with a low-level rebound. High-level stocks like Liaoning Energy hit a limit down, and funds are shifting from high-level computing power/green electricity to low-priced state-owned assets. The logic for direct supply of green electricity to computing power remains strong, but differentiation is intensifying.

Electric synergy operates on an industrial chain basis, consisting of components such as electricity + energy storage new energy + photovoltaic + batteries + smart grid equipment. Therefore, batteries performed very strongly today, and this is compounded by the rising prices of chemical raw materials; it became the strongest point in today’s market.

Oversold rebound (rotating main line): Energy metals such as Rongjie Co., Ltd. and Ganfeng Lithium led the rise, with Jiangte Electric and Chuaneng Power among others hitting the limit up. Innovative drugs/weight loss drugs saw simultaneous explosions, with Menohua achieving four consecutive limit ups and multiple stocks hitting a 20cm limit up. The speculation in pharmaceuticals is also due to the major earnings explosion in April. Chemicals, small metals, solid-state batteries, and other oversold sectors are collectively recovering, with funds switching between high and low while doing valuation repairs. The sustainability of these sectors is still mainly based on rotation, with structurally strong individual stocks!

Today’s core stocks in the market are electric synergy — New Energy Taishan, Guangxi Energy, Jinko Power; oversold rebound — Rongjie Co., Ltd., Ganfeng Lithium, Menohua; the market cycle is at a stage of main line divergence + oversold rotation + emotional repair, with electric synergy entering the second stage of high-level differentiation and low-level rebound; oversold rebounds are the first choice for fund high-low switching. The dual main lines are running in parallel, and volume constraints restrict the height of the rebound. Next week, we need to follow up on volume, whether the main line can continue, and additionally consider the disclosure of the first quarter earnings report in April. The stocks related to electric synergy, innovative drugs, chemicals, and energy metals that overlap with earnings reports will receive institutional boosts, and April is also the core month for earnings speculation.

Here, let me explain the core logic of limit down and rebound:

1. First, when core main line stocks experience a limit down and rebound, the probability of them moving out afterward is high. A very few non-main line strong stocks can also show rapid limit down and rebound followed by an independent trend. This situation is quite common, such as Zhejiang Dongri (which sold vegetables and worked on brain-machine interfaces) in 2025, Debi Technology, Huajian Group, Guosheng Technology, and this year’s Farsen and Menohua are all stocks that broke the limit down and rebounded outside of the main line themes.

2. Limit down and rebound can clearly eliminate whether the main force is washing out or dumping. Actually, using a relatively simple method, if the stock can quickly recover the limit down on the second day after a limit down, the main force is relatively strong. Of course, this also needs to be combined with intraday charts for judgment. Generally, the stocks we focus on, for example, those that limit down on Tuesday, at least by today, Friday, the main force should repair the price entity top of the limit down day. This is the effectiveness of time; generally strong stocks will not wait for three days.

3. If some stocks limit down on Monday but haven’t recovered today, and have quickly decreased in volume for four consecutive days, this situation can also use the large-volume down washing strategy, meaning that in the case of volume shrinking to half, if the stock shows a sudden increase in volume, this is also a method of the main force washing out.

Next, let me share how Menohua came out. This stock we monitor every day but haven’t entered because we see that innovative drugs are not the main line.

Menohua’s rapid rebound happened without a reduction in volume to half, quickly retesting to confirm the surge.

Before the Spring Festival, the chemical price increase cycle saw the main force’s volume shrink and rebound followed by a rapid increase to release the trapped positions, quickly shrinking back to retest the huge volume entity top, at that time we achieved over 40% profit!

For limit down and rebound, I personally prefer and focus on stocks that rebound within three days as strong candidates. If they rebound within three days but break below the entity bottom of the limit down day again, then it will enter a deeper washout, which will take longer and tracking will be more labor-intensive. For example, Li New Energy and Yinxing Energy have broken through; they will likely continue to wash out next week, and the timeline will be extended.

Furthermore, regarding the strongest and most violent volume surges, I previously mentioned in the comments that if a volume rebound occurs and the stock price rises along the five-day line, it should meet a limit up within three days to have an acceleration expectation. If there is no acceleration within three days, then caution is warranted. I have analyzed this for you multiple times; for instance, regarding volume rebounds without a reduction in volume, recently this has been the focus with Guangxi Energy.

For limit down and rebound, I encourage everyone to review and track daily, paying more attention to the resonance of time nodes and themes, as opposed to chasing highs and lows every day.

This is today’s review article and some core stocks related to limit down and rebound. My personal understanding does not constitute stock recommendations. The stock market carries risks; invest cautiously!