Lin Guijun: The internationalization of the RMB is entering an important window period, and policies need to remain highly cautious

Question AI · How Does the Questioning of the US Dollar’s Stability Catalyze Opportunities for Renminbi Internationalization?

Written by | Yuan Xiaoli

Edited by | Liu Peng

“Against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical conflicts, the internationalization of the renminbi is entering an important window period.” On March 24, at the 2026 Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference, Lin Guijun, former vice president of the University of International Business and Economics, stated in response to an exclusive question from Tencent Finance.

He believes that in the past, the international community generally had confidence in the US dollar, but with the increasing prominence of the US debt issue, frequent fluctuations in monetary policy, and excessive use of sanctions as a tool, the stability of the dollar as a global reserve currency is being increasingly questioned.

He pointed out that from an economic perspective, when a single currency bears too much pressure, it objectively requires other currencies to supplement it. The renminbi is such a reasonable supplementary option, rather than a so-called “conspiracy theory” product. However, to seize this opportunity, “it is necessary for policies to remain highly cautious.”

He specifically mentioned several risks: first, there should not be an over-reliance on monetary stimulus, as this can easily lead to policy reversals and unstable market expectations; second, a long-term surplus may not necessarily be a good thing, as a surplus means other countries have deficits, and if the counterpart is unable to pay, it could ultimately trigger a debt crisis.

Lin Guijun recalled that as early as the late 1980s, there was a natural market demand for the renminbi in neighboring countries, indicating that there is a solid market foundation for the internationalization of the renminbi. He emphasized, “Currently, the renminbi is in a very good position, but we need to advance steadily and grasp the rhythm in terms of currency management and market mechanism construction.”

Additionally, he mentioned that trade protectionism and geopolitical games are still escalating, and the opening of service trade is expected to become a new growth point. How to capture opportunities amid risks tests the wisdom of decision-makers and the resilience of the market.