The expectation of military escalation offsets the positive outlook on troop withdrawal, and Trump's speech triggers a market turbulence.

Odaily Planet Daily News: Trump delivered a rare prime-time nationwide address on television from the White House. He tried to reassure Americans whose financial markets have been roiled by the war and whose political approval ratings have taken a hit, claiming that the war with Iran is “very close” to the end. However, as Trump hinted that military action could escalate in the near term, international spot gold and silver prices kept plunging, while U.S. and Brent crude oil prices continued to surge. As of press time, spot gold is down more than $100 on the day, spot silver is down more than 3%, and both U.S. and Brent crude oil are up more than 5%. The speech highlights the immense pressure Trump is under: to clearly communicate the war aims to the public and to find an “exit ramp” for a conflict that has already entered its fifth week and is becoming increasingly difficult to manage. Notably, in some respects, this address is more like a mobilization at the start of hostilities than a summary a month after the war began. Currently, the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for one-fifth of global seaborne oil transport, has been essentially under blockade since the outbreak of the fighting, becoming a major economic pain point. Although Trump continues to insist that the energy shock will ease after the war, the government has not yet made clear how it will persuade Iran to restore navigation through the strait. (Jin10)