Is the "small spring" coming to the Guangzhou-Shenzhen real estate market? Second-hand home transactions far exceed new homes, with some "bargain listings" closing within a week.

March has always been a traditional peak season for the real estate market. The “Golden March, Silver April” effect directly influences where the market goes over the entire year.

At the start of 2026, Guangzhou and Shenzhen both emerged from the post–Chinese New Year lull. Both the number of home showings and transaction volumes have rebounded in sync, and the market warmth has continued to spread.

A reporter from the 《China Business Journal (Daily Economic News)》 (hereafter “CBJ reporter”) visited a number of residential projects and interviewed real-estate agency storefronts as well as several research institutions, learning that this round of the “small spring” in Guangzhou and Shenzhen has already arrived in a tangible way. At the same time, the market logic has also seen a clear change: some “bargain listings” (“笋盘,” referring to homes priced noticeably below other comparable listings in the same area and of the same type, offering high value) are gradually disappearing, and the room for negotiation from listing homeowners is also shrinking.

In particular, both Guangzhou and Shenzhen are showing a situation in which existing homes are comprehensively leading, becoming the main force behind this round of “small spring” recovery. Meanwhile, the new-home market overall is demonstrating deep differentiation: since the start of this year, the supply of new homes in Shenzhen has fallen year over year; in Guangzhou’s core areas, luxury homes are extremely hot, while demand from first-time buyers still relies on price concessions to move inventory. In short, the pattern between the primary and secondary markets has effectively been reversed; the supply-side structure has been reshaped—this is the most distinctive feature of this round of “small spring.”

Photo source: CBJ reporter Chen Ronghao

Existing homes carry the banner of the “small spring”

In this round of the “small spring” in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, existing homes are currently shouldering the main banner, and the underlying logic of the market has been rewritten.

From data to firsthand market feel, existing homes are driving the pace of the recovery.

Shenzhen’s existing-home market first sparked the trend, becoming the core engine behind this recovery. Data monitored by LeYouJia stores shows that after the Chinese New Year, the number of existing-home contract signings surged 132% month over month, the highest level since late March 2024. As of February 2026, the average transaction price for Shenzhen existing-home residential properties has rebounded to 62,000 yuan per square meter.

Photo source: LeYouJia Research Center, Shenzhen

The data from Ke (Shell) Research Institute is also equally straightforward: from March 2 to March 8, Shenzhen’s existing-home contract signings jumped 118% month over month. On March 8 alone, the daily transaction volume hit a new high in nearly a year, and it also rose for two consecutive weeks.

In addition, market sentiment is being repaired in tandem. According to the latest monitoring data released by Shenzhen Ke Research Institute, in February this year, the number of existing-home listings at its partner stores decreased by 3.3% compared with the same period last year. Irrational panic selling has obviously declined, and the market is gradually entering a positive cycle of “expectations turning stronger—supply optimizing—prices stabilizing.”

Photo source: Ke Research Institute

“The rebound is most obvious for high-quality school-district homes and homes with low total price and high rental yield. For example, the school-district homes at our area’s Liyuan headquarters—like the three-bedroom unit at 83 square meters in Yuanling Garden. Because it is zoned to Liyuan Headquarters and Hongling Middle School, the number of inquiries and transactions after the holiday is clearly higher than before.” On the afternoon of March 14, Liu Anying, a senior broker covering the Futian Yuanling area in Shenzhen, told the CBJ reporter.

Liu Anying said that the transaction speed of “bargain listings” in the existing-home market has been compressed into a relatively short cycle—so short that some existing “bargain listings” are成交ed in less than a week after being put on the market. “For example, take the Hanlingyuan project in Futian. That project’s roughly 108-square-meter large three-bedroom units: listing total prices are generally above 82 million yuan; that translates to about 77,400 yuan per square meter. Some owners are eager to sell—there is a listing price of 75.5 million yuan, and it can basically be成交ed in about a week,” Liu Anying said.

Photo source: CBJ reporter Chen Ronghao

In fact, similar phenomena are also happening in Shenzhen’s Luohu district. After transaction volumes in the existing-home market rose, the mindset of listing homeowners also began to stabilize—they no longer feel as rushed to sell, and their room for negotiation has become notably smaller.

For example, based on a two-bedroom unit of 47.84 square meters in Luohu’s Cuizhuayuan that the reporter visited toward the end of last year: at that time, the homeowner’s listing price was 2.45 million yuan. The intermediary said the property was expected to be able to drop to a minimum of 2.30 million yuan. But in March this year, the intermediary told the reporter that the homeowner’s minimum asking price is 2.37 million yuan.

Guangzhou’s existing-home market has also seen a strong rebound.

Data from the Ke platform shows that on March 8, Guangzhou had 247 existing-home units transacted in a single day, up 25.4% month over month. In the past week (from March 2 to March 8), cumulative transactions reached 849 units, up 118.8% month over month. After the holiday, demand from returning to the city was concentrated and released. The number of home showings arranged by intermediary storefronts has continued to rise. Guangzhou Real Estate Intermediary Association’s March manager index increased by a large 43.5 points to 71.78, showing strong industry confidence in the “small spring.”

In Li Yujia’s view, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, both Guangzhou and Shenzhen exhibit the core feature that “existing homes are better than new homes.” The year-over-year decrease in the volume of newly listed existing homes, along with a sustained improvement in market sentiment, has also boosted the replacement demand of “selling an old home and buying a new one,” gradually making the market cycle smoother.

Xiao Xiaoping, president of Ke Research Institute in Shenzhen, also expressed a similar view. He believes this round of warming is not a short-lived policy “pulse” rebound, but rather the simultaneous impact of three factors: policy optimization, restoration of confidence, and concentrated release of owner-occupier demand. Existing homes are continuously seeing expanded supply and more transactions, while new homes are also rising in parallel—making the foundation of the “small spring” more solid.

New-home market stages a structural play

Unlike the all-around heat in the existing-home market, the new-home market in Guangzhou and Shenzhen did not experience a broad-based price rise. Instead, it is a typical “structural play.”

Take Guangzhou as an example. Guangzhou’s top luxury home market has repeatedly refreshed transaction records, which has also driven up showing demand in surrounding new-home markets. In February, a land parcel in Tianhe, Guangzhou, the Maba Straits block, sold for 23.604 billion yuan at a high price. The premium rate was 26.60%, and translated into residential transaction land price was about 85,500 yuan per square meter—setting a new record for Guangzhou’s single-floor price.

On March 2, a 670-square-meter top-floor duplex in the Pearl River New Town area of Poly Yuexi Bay in Guangzhou was sold for 187 million yuan, translating to about 280,000 yuan per square meter, setting a new local record for the unit price of first-tier top luxury homes. On March 9, Star Bay Peninsula No. 5 sold 4 sets of top-luxury duplexes in a single day, with total value reaching 718.7 million yuan—core-area luxury home demand reached unprecedented levels.

Compared with the luxury market’s consecutive new highs, Guangzhou’s new-home market catering to first-time buyers has instead shown a relatively clear trend of “cutting prices to move inventory.”

Luojia Min, a real-estate intermediary in Guangzhou, told reporters that many of Guangzhou’s first-time-buyer projects use discounts and special-priced apartments to attract buyers: “If we don’t give concessions, it’s not really easy to sell.”

“For example, the rough-cast price at Star River Bay in Huangpu was directly adjusted to start from 19,000 yuan per square meter, and it also introduced three options—rough-cast, basic fit-out, and luxury fit-out—to抢客; and the time-limited discounts for New World • Tianfu in Liwan were directly set at 8.6% of the original price, as low as 38,000 yuan per square meter.” Luojia Min said. “The market is very realistic now. Without special fixed-price units and without turning discounts into real terms, even if many people come to look, it’s still hard to close deals.”

Data from Guangzhou Centaline’s Research and Development Department shows that as of the end of February 2026, Guangzhou’s citywide “narrow” inventory stood at 14.164 million square meters, down 0.13 million square meters compared with January. Because in February, new supply in major areas generally fell, the new-home market focused mainly on absorbing existing stock. Inventory dipped slightly and has been decreasing for four consecutive months.

As for Shenzhen’s new-home market, since the beginning of 2026 it has shown a relatively obvious slowdown in the “supply schedule.” According to Midland Property (MeiLian) statistics, this year only 9 residential projects in Shenzhen have obtained pre-sale permits, far fewer than the 12 projects in the same period last year.

And it is precisely because new homes are entering the market at a slower pace and it’s hard to form a scale effect from concentrated launches, the overall transaction volume of new homes is directly much lower than that of existing homes. The market shows a structural rebound pattern: in core areas, volume rises while prices stabilize; in first-time-buyer areas, prices are traded for volume.

According to Centaline data, as of March 12, Shenzhen’s cumulative transactions of commercial residential properties across the city totaled 964 units, while cumulative transfers of existing residential homes totaled 1,703 units.

Photo of concentrated best-selling posters released for some projects in Shenzhen in March

Although Shenzhen’s overall new-home transactions are weaker than existing homes, the reporter noticed that after entering March, many projects have released best-selling posters in sequence—for example, in Longhua, Hongrongyuan Guancheng sold 41 units over two days from March 7 to 8; in Yayang City • Chengming Jiayuan, subscription numbers were 39 units last week; and in China Construction Pengchen Yunchu, weekly hot sales were 32 units, and so on.

“With high-quality land plots released by core cities in 2025 gradually entering the market, and with some real-estate developers increasing their promotional efforts, it is expected that demand in the market will be gradually released in March. The ‘small spring’ in core cities is still worth期待,” said an analysis by the China Index Academy.