Bitcoin derivatives pressure eases, prices remain in the bottom-building range

SnapshotBot · 2026-04-02T02:25:00+00:00

Bitcoin's recent pullback is mainly due to deleveraging, and market sentiment has not significantly worsened. Technical indicators show that the short-term trend can still improve, with spot demand steadily supporting the price. Although concerns about quantum computing are exaggerated, attention should still be paid to market dominance and range structure, as the probability of a rebound is relatively high. Overall, the outlook leans toward bullishness, and a selective increase in holdings is recommended.

SnapshotBot

2026-04-02 02:25:00

Abstract generation in progress

The “Asymmetric Pullback” Window Under Geopolitical Noise

Price and liquidation structure: 01:25 UTC, Bitcoin rapidly dropped to $67,488, with the trigger being a one-hour pullback starting from $68,604. The liquidation data is heavily skewed—longs at $23.7 million and shorts at $2.2 million, roughly an 11:1 ratio. This indicates a squeeze on the derivatives side, not a problem in the fundamentals.
Derivatives pricing: the funding rate is approaching 0%; open interest (OI) is stable at $93.6 billion, and leverage has not continued to expand.
On-chain and sentiment: MVRV 1.26 is close to fair value, and NUPL 0.20 is in the “hope phase”—a typical bottoming zone. A 00:28 UTC Iran missile alert sparked panic on social media, but on-chain data has not worsened in sync.

My take: this pullback is mainly leverage deleveraging, not a trend reversal; the structurally bullish bias is still valid.

Technicals: Convergence, Not a Breakout

1-hour RSI is about 38, close to oversold but without a deeper breakdown; 1-hour MACD histogram value is -126, with weak short-term momentum; daily RSI is 44, staying neutral.
The price is not far below the 20-day EMA ($68,658). If it can reclaim it, the short-term outlook would improve.

Flows: Spot Buying Is Absorbing Volatility

March ETF net inflows were $1.32 billion; despite BTC’s 22% pullback in the first quarter, Q1 still recorded only about $0.5 billion in net outflows.
The market also heard that Strategy may have a potential buy order for $76 million worth of BTC, and combined with ETF subscriptions, this provides support for spot.
On the other side, Hyperliquid has a whale betting $80 million on a short (while also going long crude oil and shorting the S&P). Combined with its accumulated loss record of about $40 million, the setup shows a clear “fight the trend” wagering character—I’m inclined not to follow these types of moves.

Quantum Computing Panic: The Timing Is Off

Discussion around Google’s “quantum threshold” in its papers has been overblown. If quantum computing truly reached a practical level capable of breaking crypto, the traditional financial system and nuclear command systems would run into problems before Bitcoin Taproot does. Right now, this is more emotion-driven trading, not a real threat.

Positioning and Structure: Why I Lean Bullish

Bias: in an environment of “kill-the-long / kill-the-short” dynamics on the leverage side, selectively going long offers better value.
Clues: the long/short liquidation ratio of about 0.97 masks the asymmetric nature to the upside; plus ETH’s relative strength of +5% on the day. If geopolitical risk cools down, BTC’s dominance could face pressure.
Valuation: NVT is about 30.2, sitting in a historically common “buy-the-dip / low-entry” range.

Narrative camp	Core evidence	Market transmission	My interpretation
Geopolitical bears	After the 00:28 UTC Iran missile alert, oil prices hit a three-year high	Risk appetite cools, triggering “kill-the-long / kill-the-short,” narrowing the volatility range	Event-driven pullbacks are prone to retrace; if there’s no move toward escalation, expect cover to follow
Institutional bulls	March ETF net inflows of $1.32 billion; Strategy’s potential $76 million BTC buy order	Spot demand underpins; OI holds around $93 billion, stable	The main driver is still there; it supports bottoming above the realized price level of roughly $54k+
Derivatives skeptic camp	1-hour long liquidation skew (11:1), funding rate roughly flat	Reinforces hour-level declines, but not a trend reversal	Response strategy: downplay excessive leverage-noise
Quantum warning	“Threshold” revised downward under the Google whitepaper	Sell pressure driven by sentiment, with no on-chain evidence of attack	Timing is too early; short-term impact is limited

Range and the Balance of Power: When Can We Confirm Trend Continuation

Range structure: price repeatedly found support around $66,000, with weakening short-side force; derivatives positioning balance improves.
Absorption by buyers: NUPL (0.20) and NVT (about 30) together point to buyer follow-through. If U.S. Treasury yields continue falling for four straight days, risk appetite could recover, and the conditions for upward expansion of the range may mature.
What to watch: BTC dominance is still above 56%, but ETH and SOL’s relative strength could temporarily divert capital. Technically, holding above the 50-day moving average at $68,680 would be an upside confirmation signal.

Trading Takeaways

Resilience signals: MVRV stays within the fair value range, while a neutral funding rate suppresses cascading liquidations.
Risk appetite: liquidation convergence and a resonance with ETF net subscriptions point to “quiet bottoming.”
Noise that can be ignored: a few whales’ directional positioning looks more like short-cycle speculation, and historical performance hasn’t been good.
Cycle read: the bottoming phase has not broken; if geopolitical tension cools down, the probability of a rebound in Q2 is about 65%.

Bottom line: Range consolidation is still in place, and the structurally bullish setup remains effective.

Verdict: Readers are currently in a “somewhat early” position; buying on pullbacks with disciplined spot entries or lower-leverage positioning offers better value. Under this narrative, funds that increase strategic spot holdings and long-term holders have the clearest advantage; short-term traders can participate by buying the dip and exiting if price breaks below key moving averages.

BTC-2.54%

ETH-3.5%

SOL-5.09%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

1 Likes