The technical risks continue to accumulate, and gold prices may dip to $3,800? Here's how analysts explain it...

China Financial News (Cailianshe) April 2 report (Edited by Huang Junzhi) After experiencing the largest single-month drop since the early 1980s, gold has shown strong performance at the start of the second quarter, returning to above $4,700 per ounce. However, a market analyst’s latest warning says this unprecedented pullback has not yet ended.

A senior technical analyst and founder of ElliottWaveTrader, Avi Gilburt, said in a recent interview that he sees two completely different technical outlooks, which could ultimately push the gold price down to below $4,000 per ounce, and even near $3,800.

As U.S. President Trump delivered a nationwide address this morning on the Iran issue, gold fell in the short term and volatility increased. As of the time of writing, spot and futures gold prices have both been hovering below $4,700; they had at one point come close to $4,800. Based on the target prices given by Gilburt, the gold price would still fall by more than 20% from current levels.

Gilburt said he is closely watching the current price action and has forecast two sets of possible scenarios:

The first scenario is that the price will encounter resistance when it gets close to the current level, and then continue to move lower.

The second scenario is even more dangerous. He said he will closely monitor whether gold can break above the $4,800 per ounce resistance level. If it breaks, the gold price could rise to $5,200, and then trigger the downward trend he expects. “This path is more wicked or more deceptive, because a higher price will make everyone believe the correction is already over, but in reality the correction has only just begun.”

Silver has long-term investment value

For silver, Gilburt’s view is similar to gold. As long as the price stays below the near-term high in March, he believes silver faces downside risk and could fall to the level of $53.50 per ounce.

However, for long-term investors, Gilburt thinks silver still has significant investment value below $60, though he also does not rule out the possibility that the silver price could fall further to $40.

“For silver, in the long run—over the next 10 years—any price below $60 will be an excellent buying opportunity,” he said.

In addition to gold and silver, Gilbert also focuses on investment opportunities in mining stocks. He believes mining stocks could outperform precious metals in the next round of a bullish market. He noted that some mining stocks have already bounced off their lows, while others are still in the correction phase, creating selective investment opportunities for the entire sector.

“There are a lot of mining stocks that could outperform silver and gold,” he said.

Finally, Gilburt said that from a broader perspective on commodities, oil prices may still rise in the short term, but he expects oil prices to drop sharply later this year, possibly even breaking below $50.

Overall, Gilburt’s outlook is still driven by technical structure rather than macroeconomic narratives, and he expects key turning points for gold, silver, stocks, and commodities in the coming months.

(Cailianshe, Huang Junzhi)