Oil prices fall to around $100 after Trump indicates war could end in weeks

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If Iran War ended tomorrow we wouldn’t go back to pre-war oil prices, says top oil analyst Andy Lipow

Fast Money

Crude prices fell on Wednesday as investors weighed U.S. President Donald Trump’s willingness to exit the Iran conflict within weeks, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery fell 1.24%, or $1.26, to close at $100.12 a barrel, while the Brent contract for June delivery was down 2.82%, or $2.93, to trade around $101.04 a barrel.

The global oil benchmark surged more than 60% last month, in its strongest monthly rally dating back to 1988. The May contract settled about 5% higher on Tuesday at $118.35 per barrel.

Oil prices dropped after Trump said Tuesday evening that he expected the U.S. military to wind down operations against Iran in “two or three weeks” and appeared to be declaring victory.

“We leave because there’s no reason for us to do this,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “We’ll be leaving very soon.”

Trump also dismissed the idea of having to reach a negotiated deal to end the war, saying that “Iran doesn’t have to make a deal … it’s a new regime. They are much more accessible.” He also asserted that he had stopped Iran from gaining a nuclear weapon.

Later Tuesday, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said in a post on X that Trump will deliver a national address to provide an “important update” on Iran at 9 p.m. ET Wednesday.

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Brent crude prices

The U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran has triggered a severe energy supply disruption since the war began on Feb. 28, stoking fears across the global economy that relies heavily on Middle Eastern oil.

Iran has effectively halted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman that typically saw 20% of global oil flows before the war broke out.

While global markets await Trump’s comments later Wednesday, military hostilities continue. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said it would start attacking U.S. companies in the region from Wednesday, listing 18 companies including Google, Microsoft, Apple, Intel, IBM, Tesla and Boeing.

Iranian drones targeted fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport on Wednesday, causing a massive fire and damage to the tanks, Kuwaiti local media reported, citing the civil aviation authority.

“Trump remains stuck. Leaving now would admit defeat,” said Michael Feller, co-founder of think-tank Geopolitical Strategy, adding that destroying civilian infrastructure, as Trump threatened earlier this week, would “make no difference other than to further drive up oil prices.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi ​​told Al Jazeera on Tuesday that messages had been exchanged with the U.S., directly or through countries in the region, but they do not constitute “negotiations.”

“I receive messages from [US special envoy] Witkoff directly, as before, and this does not mean that we are in negotiations,” he said. “There is no truth to the claim of negotiations with any party in Iran. All messages are conveyed through the Foreign Ministry or received by it, and there are communications between security agencies,” he said.

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