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European Central Bank's Schnabel states that responses to the impact of war should not be rushed and overreacted to.
European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said the ECB should not rush to respond to the impacts of the Iran war and must carefully avoid “overreacting.” She also urged officials to remain flexible and vigilant.
The German official is widely seen as the most hawkish rate-setter within the ECB. On Friday, she said in Zurich that Europe is facing a “major energy price shock,” which has caused investors’ expectations for future inflation to “soar” higher. But she said the ECB must “carefully weigh” its decisions.
“We have to stay flexible, we have to stay vigilant, but there is no need to rush into action,” she said. This was her first public comment since the ECB decided to keep interest rates unchanged last week.
“We have time to observe the data and analyze what is actually happening—whether there is evidence of a second-round effect, how strong the demand environment is, and how likely it is that this inflation shock becomes deeply rooted in inflation expectations and even wage growth.”
Traders have pared back their bets on tighter monetary policy and now think the probability of the ECB raising rates by 25 basis points next month is slightly above 50%. By contrast, the move was fully priced in by the money market on Monday.
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