4.2 Midday Trading: All the ups and downs are unreliable.

[Tao股吧]

The overall market

1.7 trillion RMB shrinking volume 12% effective volume reduction

This is about revisiting to confirm the bottom is valid.

Last night was supposed to be cause for great joy—

But this morning after 9:00, following the Golden Hair speech,

the whole world crashed. You tell me—did you just open a short position in US stocks again?

Did you also go long on oil, right or not?

Earnings effects

Strong divergence

Earnings effects exclude locally-bonded (concentrated) selections

and defensive/hedging instruments—there’s no earnings effect

Loss-making effects

are concentrated in technology and index correlation stocks.

Themes

As I said last night, here you want to see whether it stays in chaos or turns into a main upswing.

So basically you can anchor to yesterday’s strong names.

Biopharma is the strongest—but this is clearly a trend-based main upswing.

So the main thing to watch is computing power and chips, which have anchoring impact.

For computing power, look at whether ORYID and CTN (Meili Cloud) show their stance.

If they show their stance and keep moving higher, that would mean there’s a chance for this to enter a momentum/main upswing driven by sentiment.

But it’s not easy to chase, because you don’t know whether it will ultimately work.

If they don’t show their stance, and then swap into yesterday’s weak—commercial aerospace, lithium batteries, power—turning over in rotation becomes strong.

Then this is still the chaos phase.

As a result, at the opening auction, computing power indicates it won’t work.

And sure enough, lithium batteries and power started rotating to strengthen.

So this is still chaos—either focus on the tightly held/concentrated names, or focus on intraday turning-strong and the first strongest intraday leader.

The front of the rotation is too hard.

So today is still a textbook chaos structure: yesterday repaired, today diverged.

But here, by the close and tomorrow you need to see whether the divergence continues. If the divergence continues,

it means this is about to play out a real “third leg” decline—then sentiment will be shifting toward a retreat/low-tide structure.

On the theme side, the active hot spots that want to strengthen keep rotating for a while.

In the end, the market chose defensives: pork and chicken—then oil and petrochemicals returned. Anchoring “Golden Bull” means down wave two and then repair.

Power didn’t ferment much; the power grid did ferment into a positive news catalyst. But it couldn’t reverse and push Yunneng Holding to repair from down wave two.

Then the defensive attributes of biopharma fermented: the sector led in gains, but it still didn’t break into a sentiment-driven main upswing.

No clear core leader.

Key stock commentary

Menovo (美诺华)

This is completely driven by the sector pushing it up.

It’s the quant strategy’s most favorite pattern right now—constantly messing around and flipping repeatedly.

After it hit the sell limit (board) and then blew up, the sector started rapidly pulling back.

Here it feels like quants are chasing high volatility.

This stock does T for quant trading—within one day it can do 30%.

And with the convertible bond, it’s something else entirely.

Actually, what they like most is Wanbangde.

But that one doesn’t allow follow/attention.

Unimportant stock commentary
**
ORYID (奥瑞德)**
**
CTN / Meili Cloud (美利云)**

Meets expectations—okay to see.

Exceeds expectations—go for it.

Below expectations—cut it.

These two opening auctions were both below expectations.

So the issue is basically whether to cut/disengage (unfollow).

If you’re going to cut it, just unfollow at the open.

If later it gets pulled back up, that’s another story.

Anyway, the opening auction was wrong.

Linuo Pharma Pack (力诺药包)

For now, looks like an arbitrage trade.

Recently, the big-name players like to do consecutive daily limit-ups.

Menovo convertible bond (美诺华可转债)

Bite off a piece—if the common stock board is blown, you can just run.

The first support level mentioned yesterday, 3936—once that broke,

today is suitable to watch more and trade less.

If 3909 breaks again,

then here it’s again an expectation of repair tomorrow.

On the contrary, it’s easy to get consecutive divergence.

Either stay in cash and watch the show,

or only trade—and do it with the tightly held/consensus names,

and with the inverse-index-type instruments.