Gate integrates with Polymarket, making it a popular prediction event on who will become the F1 champion driver.

The roar of the 2026 F1 season’s circuits has only just begun, but a “silent battle” already raging on Crypto prediction markets Polymarket—over who will be the overall championship-winning driver.

According to the prediction page on the Gate platform, the current prediction event “Who will be the 2026 F1 champion” is drawing intense attention from capital flows, with total trading volume already surpassing $73.70 million. In this title race—“voted on” with crypto funds—the internal competition within the Mercedes team has become the absolute focal point: George Russell leads strongly with a 46% chance of winning, his young teammate Kimi Antonelli follows closely with a 31% win rate, and Ferrari ace Charles Leclerc sits third for now with a 5% win rate.

Crypto markets “vote” with money: Why Russell became the top pick?

In the traditional sports betting world, odds are often set by bookmakers, reflecting institutions’ assessments of risk. But in decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket, price directly equals probability, while trading volume is a direct reflection of market confidence.

With Russell sitting at the top at a 46% win rate, the backdrop is the crypto market’s multi-layered recognition of his experience, stability, and Mercedes’ racing machines. Even though his teammate Antonelli got off to a strong start by winning the Chinese Grand Prix and the Japanese Grand Prix in succession, traders seem to be more inclined to believe that “the older and wiser have the edge.” Former F1 driver Jorrin Palmer has pointed out that Russell has a kind of “steel-like” quality: if he faces pressure at the crucial moment in the championship fight, he’s fully capable of showing that same “ruthless” side—like the one Nico Rosberg displayed against Hamilton back then. This kind of psychological toughness and political savvy at key moments is an important bargaining chip in the market’s belief that Russell can withstand the challenge from his younger teammate.

In addition, Mercedes’ technical advantages under the new regulations for the 2026 season are also key support for his high-probability standing. Team principal Toto Wolff, while remaining cautious, also admits that Russell is “worth being favored by bookmakers because he is one of the best drivers.”

Antonelli closes in: the “probability” comeback of a prodigy

Although he trails by 15 percentage points, the 19-year-old Kimi Antonelli—at a 31% win rate—still follows right behind, enough to prove how highly the market values his talent. After the Japanese Grand Prix, Antonelli even briefly became the youngest leader of the F1 points standings.

For participants in the crypto market, Antonelli represents a “high-growth” asset. His absolute speed and ability to manage energy shown in the Japanese Grand Prix even temporarily surpassed that of his experienced teammate. Even though he made some mistakes early in the season (like a FP3 crash in Melbourne), the market has precisely viewed this as a “risk discount priced into the price.” As Motorsport.com’s commentary put it, while Russell remains the favorite to win, if Antonelli can continue to maintain his current upward momentum, he will quickly pose a real threat to Russell’s “throne.” For traders in prediction markets, the 31% probability reflects not only the present situation, but also the expectation of future potential being priced in.

Leclerc and Ferrari: an undervalued “value pit”?

Compared with the high-profile duel at Mercedes, Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc is stuck in third place with a 5% win rate, looking rather subdued. However, within the logic of crypto prediction markets, low probability often also means a potentially high-odds opportunity.

Leclerc’s slump in odds mainly stems from Ferrari’s struggles in the early part of the season. But it’s worth noting that after the Bahrain test in February, the bookmaker bet365 had listed Leclerc as the third biggest favorite for the driver’s championship, with odds of just 6.00—before even Antonelli. This means that at the time, the market broadly believed Ferrari had a foundation for fighting for the title. As the season deepens, if Ferrari can resolve the issues with its car, Leclerc’s currently low win rate could be quickly corrected. For participants in prediction markets, this 5% probability may be exactly the “value pit” worth paying attention to.

Conclusion

Connecting Gate to Polymarket isn’t just adding another form of entertainment for users—it brings Web3 transparency and financial game theory into the field of sports predictions.

On Polymarket, every contract of “who will be the F1 champion” runs on the blockchain, with the result automatically executed by smart contracts. All trading data—including the $73.70 million trading volume shown on the Gate platform—is public and verifiable. This greatly improves the credibility of the prediction market, and also makes high-profile events like F1 the best place to test market wisdom.

For crypto users and F1 fans, not only can you use the Gate platform to track the latest probabilities in this championship prediction event in real time, you can also “vote” for the driver you back with your USDC—joining the capital battle that will shape the future landscape of F1.