Market Skepticism Grows Over Trump's Ceasefire Claims, No Change in War Probability Between US and Iran

According to PolyBeats monitoring, Trump has recently been frequently raising expectations for US-Iran negotiations and claimed to have been in contact with Iran. Today, he reiterated that the Iranian president had requested a ceasefire, only to be quickly contradicted by Iranian officials. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran stated that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is ‘firmly under their control’ and that they ‘will not open up to the enemies of this country due to the absurd performances of the US president.’ Several prediction markets indicate that Trump’s recent verbal assertions are no longer effective, with the probability of a ‘US-Iran ceasefire by the end of April’ remaining at 38%, still at a recent low, as the market does not expect rapid progress towards a ceasefire. The probability of ‘navigation through the Strait of Hormuz by the end of April’ has dropped further to 20%, also at a recent low, as the strait is firmly controlled by Iran and has become a weapon in the economic war against the US. The probability of ‘US ground troops entering Iran by the end of the month’ remains high at 55%, as US forces continue to increase their presence in the Middle East.