Geopolitical conflicts have become amplifiers in this freight rate cycle, and the Penghua Oil ETF has attracted significant attention.

Ask AI · How does vessel aging drive the tanker price back-wardation phenomenon?

On the news front, Morgan Stanley has raised its 2027 Brent crude oil price forecast to $80 per barrel.

Institutions have noted that the cycle is driven by a clear long-term logic. Vessel aging + tightening environmental policies are the core drivers behind an upward update cycle. The economic life of VLCCs is generally 20–25 years; currently, vessels with an age of more than 15 years account for nearly half. The prior oil transportation cycle has already begun: the oil shipping freight rate center has surged significantly. From the start of the year to date, the VLCC TCT stands at $141,000 per day, which is notably higher than the historical extreme value ($65,000 per day), while geopolitical conflict has become an amplifier of this freight-rate cycle. Improved profitability for shipowners is expected to accelerate the renewal of old vessels. In January–February, global vessel orders doubled, with the increase particularly evident for tankers. Orders come first—looking for upside room in ship prices.

In terms of pricing, compared with the high-range consolidation of newbuild prices, the tanker price index has continued to rise steadily since late 2025. Meanwhile, secondhand ship prices have also kept moving up. Currently, the 5-year-old secondhand VLCC price (about $130 million per vessel) is already higher than newbuild quotes (about $120 million per vessel), forming back-wardation. With supply tight due to shipyard capacity being taken up by other vessel types, tanker prices are expected to continue rising and to lift overall newbuilding ship prices. Continue to focus on the marine engineering sector: long-cycle upside, and short-term earnings marginal data showing clear improvement—certain performance & low valuation.

As of March 25, 2026, 14:45, the CSI Guo Zheng Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) was down 1.76%. In constituent stocks, winners and losers were mixed: Hongtian Co., Ltd. led with a gain of 6.07%, Haimor Technology rose 3.03%, and Runtong Co., Ltd. increased 2.37%; InterOil & Gas led the declines with a drop of 5.90%, Xin’ao Shares fell 5.33%, and Blue Flame Holdings declined 5.25%. The petroleum ETF Penghua (159697) was down 1.68%, with the latest quote at 1.46 yuan.

Penghua’s petroleum ETF closely tracks the CSI Guo Zheng Petroleum and Natural Gas Index. The CSI Guo Zheng Petroleum and Natural Gas Index reflects changes in the stock prices of listed companies related to the petroleum and natural gas industries on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing exchanges.

Data show that as of February 27, 2026, the top 10 weight stocks in the CSI Guo Zheng Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) are PetroChina, CNOOC, Sinopec, Jerry Co., Ltd., China Merchants Energy Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy, Guanghui Energy, InterOil & Gas, JZPN Energy, and Xin’ao Shares. The combined share of the top 10 weight stocks is 67.92%.