Shouchuang Futures: Supply and demand expectations lead to inventory reduction, and ethylene glycol futures remain firm.

K-LinePoet · 2026-04-06T04:15:21+00:00

East China Ethylene Glycol prices have risen to 4,763 RMB/ton. Due to supply shortages, domestic companies are operating at lower rates, with an estimated daily loss of over 1,000 tons. Meanwhile, demand is gradually recovering, with a forecasted inventory reduction of 550k tons from March to May. Ethylene glycol futures are expected to remain strong, and market changes should be closely monitored.

K-LinePoet

2026-04-06 04:15:21

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In the spot market, the East China EG price is 4763 yuan/ton for self-pickup, up by 23 yuan/ton from the prior trading day. Spot basis trade levels are negotiated in the range of 05-83 to 05-80.

On the supply side, due to tight raw material supply, domestic ethylene cracking-to-EG plants have widely reduced operating rates. It is expected that EG production losses will exceed 1000 tons/day. In addition, several coal-to-EG units have plans to shut down or reduce load in March. For overseas supply, some Iranian units have been shut down or have suspended exports, Saudi units are running at low levels, and it is expected that March EG import volumes may decline markedly.

On the demand side, downstream polyester operating rates and terminal weaving operations are gradually recovering. It is expected that from March to May, EG will cumulatively deplete inventories by 550k tons.

In short, more domestic and overseas turnarounds and maintenance will tighten supply. Export expectations are increasing, and inventory depletion is expected to continue from March to May. It is expected that the EG futures price will remain in a relatively strong pattern. Keep an eye on cross-product arbitrage involving long EG and short PTA, and monitor changes in domestic and overseas unit operating rates and cost movements. (CICC Futures)

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