CITIC Construction Investment: Optimistic about the investment value of lithium battery equipment and solid-state battery sectors

CITIC Construction Investment Research reports that high oil prices are accelerating the global electrification trend, and strong demand in the lithium battery sector boosts equipment demand. As the situation in the Middle East escalates and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed, geopolitical conflicts may keep international energy prices, represented by crude oil, at relatively high levels for the long term. Lithium batteries, as an emerging power and energy-storage solution, will significantly benefit. The expansion pace of leading battery companies is speeding up; orders for core lithium battery equipment such as stacking, coating, and formation are rapidly rebounding. Pilot-line construction for solid-state batteries is also being accelerated in parallel, and equipment-side tenders and deliveries have entered a period of high frequency. With a clear demand-driven logic in the current cycle, high oil prices and strong downstream conditions are creating a resonance effect. We continue to look favorably on the allocation value of lithium battery equipment and solid-state battery segments.

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Tesla Preheats Optimus V3, AIDC Power Generation Equipment Continues to Benefit from North American Power Shortages

Humanoid robots: Tesla released a video to keep preheating Optimus V3, and the sector is gradually entering the allocation range. Tesla released a video with a caption saying that Optimus will be the greatest product in history. Optimus also places equal emphasis on design and manufacturing. The current goal is to achieve mass production as quickly as possible. Optimus V3 is still being preheated. Going forward, it is worth paying close attention to product releases, progress on mass production, and so on. IPOs for domestic robotics companies such as Unitree Technology are being continuously advanced. The value per unit of its core products is high and close to terminal customers. Its position in the industrial chain is significant, and its brand appeal is strong. The core equipment suppliers may see a reassessment of their valuations. We recommend paying attention to relevant supply-chain players. The current robotics sector is gradually entering the allocation range; both the Unitree IPO and Tesla V3 are gathering momentum and are ready to launch.

AIDC power generation equipment: Power shortages remain the main storyline for the whole year. We remain firmly bullish on the gas turbine industry chain. According to our estimates, global gas turbine demand in 2028 will exceed 120 GW. We expect global gas turbine supply to be about 90 GW. The gap will continue to widen, and we continue to be bullish on the gas turbine industry chain as well as trends such as converting ships to gas.

Construction machinery: We expect that in March, domestic excavator sales will recover to year-on-year growth, while exports will maintain high growth. In January and February 2026, a total of 35,934 excavators were sold, up 13.1% year over year. Of these: domestic sales were 15,478 units, down 9.19% year over year; exports were 20,456 units, up 38.8% year over year. Domestic sales showed a year-on-year decline in the single digits, but exports performed strongly. Overseas markets are the main profit-contributing segment. Taking exchange-rate factors into account, we still expect overall Q1 performance of the OEMs to be strong. We expect that the domestic market in 2026 could achieve growth of more than 10%, and exports could achieve growth of more than 15%. Both domestic and international demand are expected to continue to resonate upward.

Semiconductor equipment: The SEMICON exhibition concluded successfully. We felt the following: (1) This exhibition clearly showed that the number of attendees from Japan and South Korea was higher than in prior years. The early signs of equipment going overseas have emerged. Companies emphasizing independently owned intellectual property are likely to achieve large-scale overseas expansion first. (2) Core equipment manufacturers launching new products are focusing even more on vertical extensions, highlighting progress in advanced process technology. (3) Last year’s high-profile New Camel was absent from the exhibition. Its subsidiaries, Wanliyan and Qiyunfang, participated and released signals along with spectrum analyzers, EDA software, and so on. (4) Compared with the level of industry optimism, both orders and performance for downstream equipment have achieved high growth. Overall, we remain steadfastly confident in the investment opportunities in this sector. For downstream expansion, we expect capital expenditures at fab plants in 2026 to remain on an upward path. Among them, storage is the most certain, while advanced logic is expected to continue delivering strong performance. In terms of localization rate, downstream companies are generally accelerating verification and adoption of domestically produced equipment. The localization process for components—especially module-type components—is expected to speed up. The sector’s fundamentals are overall positive. In this cycle, we should place even more emphasis on “de-China-outsourcing” (去日化).

Lithium battery equipment: High oil prices are accelerating the global electrification trend, and strong lithium battery conditions are boosting equipment demand. As the situation in the Middle East escalates and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed, geopolitical conflicts may keep international energy prices, represented by crude oil, at relatively high levels for the long term. Lithium batteries, as an emerging power and energy-storage solution, will significantly benefit. The expansion pace of leading battery companies is accelerating; orders for core lithium battery equipment such as stacking, coating, and formation are rapidly rebounding. Pilot-line construction for solid-state batteries is also being accelerated in parallel, and equipment-side tenders and deliveries have entered a concentrated period. With a clear demand-driven logic for the current sector, high oil prices and strong downstream conditions are creating a resonance effect. We continue to look favorably on the allocation value of lithium battery equipment and solid-state battery segments.

Risk disclosure: risks related to fluctuations in domestic macroeconomic conditions, risks related to fluctuations in overseas markets, and risks that downstream expansion may fall short of expectations.

（Source: Yicai）