Lujiazui Financial Breakfast Monday, April 6, 2026

•This week, the market continues to focus on developments in the Middle East, with China and the U.S. March inflation data to be released soon

•Iran’s armed forces reject U.S. President Donald Trump’s “48-hour” ultimatum

•Trump: I believe an agreement with Iran can be reached before the deadline arrives

•Trump claims the U.S. military has carried out the most daring search-and-rescue operation in history, and that all missing pilots have been rescued

•Iran strikes petrochemical and energy facilities in Gulf countries, warning of further strikes against U.S. interests

•Iraq is exempted, ships from France and Japan pass through; traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz hits a new high since the war began

•Oman and Iran hold a deputy minister-level meeting to discuss ways to ensure passage through the Strait of Hormuz

•OPEC+ decides to increase crude oil production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in May

•China’s railways set a new record for daily passenger volume during the Qingming holiday

1,Major developments keep coming one after another in the global markets this week! Domestically, China’s March foreign exchange reserves and inflation data will be released in succession; a new round of adjustments to refined oil prices is about to begin; and new short-term trading regulatory rules for A-shares will take effect on April 7, with the start of quarterly report disclosures. Overseas, attention remains fixed on developments in Iran’s conflict; NATO Secretary General will visit the U.S. to meet with Trump; the U.S. will release March CPI and February core PCE; the Federal Reserve will disclose the minutes of its March meeting. For major meetings, the ASEAN finance ministers and central bank governors meeting will be held; NIO’s ES9 product technology launch event will be held on April 9; and the opening of the 14th China International Exhibition of Electronics & Information. In addition, on April 6, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will be closed for the Qingming holiday; stock markets in multiple European countries will also be closed for Easter.

2,In response to the “48-hour” ultimatum issued by U.S. President Donald Trump, Abdullah, the commander of the Central Headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces (Hatam Ambyia), emphasized that the Iranian military will resolutely safeguard national rights and protect national assets, making the aggressors pay a price. Local time on April 4, Trump posted on social media, calling on Iran to “reach an agreement” within 48 hours or “open the Strait of Hormuz,” and threatened that time was running out. If Iran fails to open the Strait of Hormuz before the evening of April 7, the U.S. will list Iran’s power plants as strike targets. On March 26, Trump had announced that its “destruction” action against Iran’s energy facilities would be postponed by 10 days, extending the deadline to 20:00 Eastern Time on April 6. This is the second time he has postponed this deadline.

3,U.S. President Donald Trump says the U.S. is currently conducting “intensive negotiations” with Iran, and an agreement could be reached before the final deadline of April 7 he set. Two sources say the talks are being conducted through mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey, and there is also communication between Trump’s advisers and Iran’s foreign minister. Trump said that special envoy Witkoff and his son-in-law Kushner are engaged in intensive talks with Iran. Trump said it is very likely that an agreement will be reached, but if one cannot be reached, everything there will be destroyed.

4,U.S. President Donald Trump posted on a social media platform, saying the U.S. military has completed the most daring search-and-rescue operation in history, and that all missing pilots have been rescued. Iran said that, through “timely and consistent” joint action by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Iranian army, the Basij militias, and law enforcement forces, enemy aircraft that entered the southern area of Isfahan— including two “Black Hawk” helicopters and a C-130 military transport aircraft—were all hit. U.S. media said that the missing U.S. pilots have been rescued, and during the process of rescuing them, the U.S. military blew up two “trapped” U.S. transport aircraft tasked with the rescue mission.

5,There are clear signs of loosening in the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran announced that it is granting transit exemptions to Iraq; a French container ship and a Japanese liquefied petroleum gas ship completed their crossings one after another. As of April 3, the seven-day rolling average number of vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz reached the highest level since the outbreak of the Iran-U.S. war at the end of February. Meanwhile, Oman and Iran held a deputy minister-level meeting with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to discuss feasible plans on how to ensure smooth passage through the Strait of Hormuz under the current regional situation. Experts from both sides also proposed multiple ideas and recommendations on related issues for further study.

6,An “OPEC+” meeting consisting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC oil-producing countries’ members held a meeting among 8 member countries, deciding that starting from May 2026, crude oil production will be increased by 206,000 barrels per day, continuing the prior arrangement of gradually exiting voluntary production cuts. The countries attending the meeting include Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. The meeting made no other adjustments to current production policies.

1,Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, spoke by phone with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on an arranged basis to exchange views on the current situation in the Middle East. Wang Yi said that China and Russia, as permanent members of the UN Security Council, should uphold justice on major issues, take an objective and balanced approach, and strive to win more understanding and support from the international community. The Chinese side has consistently advocated resolving international and regional hot issues through dialogue and negotiations via political means. At present, the Middle East situation is still deteriorating, and fighting continues to escalate. The fundamental way to resolve the issue of passage through the Strait of Hormuz is to stop fighting and end the war as soon as possible.

2,China Railway Corporation Limited said that on April 4, the country’s railways transported 22.123 million passengers, setting a historical record for the highest daily passenger volume during the Qingming holiday. On April 5, the railways nationwide are expected to send 14.7 million passengers, with a plan to add 768 passenger trains. From April 3 to April 7, the railways nationwide are expected to send a total of 90.5 million passengers. For road travel, the Ministry of Transport said that the flow of small passenger cars on expressways nationwide is expected to exceed 54 million vehicles, of which the flow of new energy vehicles is expected to be about 14 million vehicles.

1,Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po posted in a blog, saying that in the first quarter of this year, the Hong Kong IPO market continued to perform strongly. As of March 27, the amount raised had already exceeded HK$103 billion, ranking first globally. Including subsequent financings and so on, the total fundraising scale is about HK$237 billion. At present, the number of application cases awaiting listing in Hong Kong has exceeded 500.

2,In the first quarter, 40 companies were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and IPO fundraising amounted to nearly HK$110 billion, up 489% year on year. The number of sponsorship offerings ranked in the top three among China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong, CITIC Securities (Hong Kong), and Haitong Financial (Hong Kong). The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is strengthening supervision over the quality of filing documents, but since 2026, the timing and heat of IPO filings, review, and listing have still remained ongoing.

3,Seven mainstream listed passenger vehicle companies including BYD have successively disclosed their 2025 financial results, and many companies’ sales and revenue scales have once again hit new highs. Among them, six companies were profitable and one was loss-making; multiple companies saw declines in net profit, clearly showing differentiation within the industry. In 2025, companies such as BYD, Chery, and SAIC expanded overseas markets more actively, obtaining higher gross profit margins. Overseas markets have become an important “safe harbor” for automakers to offset domestic profitability pressure.

4,Currently, the first-quarter new stock listings in the A-share market have concluded. As of March 31, a cumulative total of 30 stocks have landed on the A-share market, slightly higher than the 27 stocks in the first quarter of 2025 on a year-on-year basis. Boosted by the continued active new stock market, the first-day performance of stocks listed in the first quarter has generally been impressive, with an average gain of nearly 163.5%. If only new stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen are counted, and based on a single-lot subscription of 500 shares, the average first-day profit per single lot for new stocks listed in the first quarter is 27,000 yuan.

5,Based on the current issuance schedule, 5 new stocks can be applied for this week. On April 7, applicants can subscribe for the New Third Board (NEEQ) new stock Hengdao Technology and the main board new stock Etaiq in the Shanghai Stock Exchange; on April 8, applicants can subscribe for the ChiNext board new stock Shangshui Intelligent in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange; on April 9, applicants can subscribe for the STAR Market new stock Shenghe Jingwei in the Shanghai Stock Exchange; and on April 10, applicants can subscribe for the main board new stock Fun’en Shares in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. As of April 5, the total number of shares to be issued for this round of Shenghe Jingwei ranks second among new stocks in both Shanghai and Shenzhen since 2026, so investors applying for Shenghe Jingwei have a relatively high chance of getting a placing.

6,Wind data shows that last week, institutions conducted research on 355 listed companies in total. Among them, Mindray Medical received the most attention, with 356 institutions participating in the research; Biaopeng Beverage received research from 325 institutions; and both Jinpank Technology and Rayson Technology received research from more than 200 institutions. In terms of the industries under research, institutions have continued to focus on sectors such as pharmaceutical and medical care, electronic components, and integrated circuits.

7,Renowned investor Duan Yongping recently posted on social media about Pop Mart, saying that Pop Mart is the pioneer of the internationalization of Chinese products. Duan Yongping said that he went to see a Pop Mart store at Westfield. The store is only about 60 square meters, and business is indeed very good. Most customers are adults, and the proportion of local Chinese people is very small—around 10%. How can you think Pop Mart is the pioneer of the internationalization of Chinese products? Other companies don’t seem to have reached that level either.

1,From April, spring breaks are being rolled out in many places nationwide for primary and middle schools. The consecutive holiday pattern of “3-day spring break and Qingming holiday” has kept holiday travel demand soaring. Travel platform reports on spring break show that the share of parent-child users’ trips in pilot cities for spring break increased from 32% to 59%, surpassing non-parent-child customer groups for the first time and becoming the absolute main force.

2,In the first quarter, China’s real estate market generally showed a “slightly bullish spring” trend under the dual effect of sustained policy efforts and endogenous market repair. However, the foundation for the recovery is not solid; “weak recovery” and “strong differentiation” are intertwined, and the second quarter is expected to continue the main tone of “recovery and differentiation coexisting.”

3,After the “Seven Shanghai Articles” were implemented, the March Shanghai real estate market saw a fully-fledged “slightly bullish spring”: visitor traffic and transactions for multiple new residential projects improved significantly. The second-hand housing market was especially impressive, with transaction volume reaching 31,215 units, setting a near 5-year high and the second-highest record for the same period in nearly 10 years, and prices ultimately put an end to a 33-month downward trend.

4,Jiangsu’s real estate market has truly entered a “slightly bullish spring.” In March, the year-on-year growth in second-hand home transactions in Suzhou was 24.7%, and the month-on-month increase was 269.8%; viewing volume increased year on year by 14.7% and month on month by 275.1%. Among them, the share of just-need and just-improved housing types sized 70 to 120 square meters is nearly 60%, making them the absolute mainstay in transactions. In March, Nanjing saw 9,883 second-hand home transactions, up 80% month on month and up 5% year on year, with transaction volume hitting the highest level in nearly one year.

5,In recent times, many places including Wuhan, Xiangyang, Yichang, Xianning, Xiaogan, Suizhou, and Shennongjia in Hubei have frequently optimized housing provident fund usage policies. They have rolled out a series of benefits for the people focusing on lowering loan entry thresholds, increasing loan limits, relaxing withdrawal conditions, facilitating intercity processing, and supporting urban renewal. This new policy has broad coverage and strong inclusiveness. Some places have broken down barriers to intercity business and improved the convenience of using the housing provident fund. Wuhan has removed restrictions on borrowers’ Wuhan household registration for intercity loans, meaning that all employees making contributions across the country can apply for housing provident fund loans to buy homes in Wuhan.

6,According to data from JLL, the Shenzhen office market has continued the active momentum it has had since the fourth quarter of 2025, and recovery signals have kept strengthening. In the first quarter of 2026, the net absorption of A-grade office space in Shenzhen was about 142,000 square meters, up 75% year on year. The overall vacancy rate fell to 25.9%, declining for two consecutive quarters.

7,According to China’s 2026 “Guo Buy” policy, electric bicycles are no longer included on the list of subsidies for trading in used items for new ones among the six categories of consumer goods. Local areas currently also have not introduced any “local subsidies” for electric bicycles. During the transition period when new and old national standards are being replaced, in the first quarter, promotions for electric bicycle retail sales can only be covered by manufacturers, and store sales have seen a relatively noticeable year-on-year decline.

8,Starting from April 5, six newly revised civil affairs industry standards, such as the “Public Satisfaction Evaluation Measures for Funeral Services” and the “Standards for Data Sharing and Exchange in Funeral Management Service Information Systems,” began to be implemented. These focus on informatization development and optimizing service quality, and by standardizing the industry, they better protect the dignity of the deceased.

9,China Energy Investment Group revealed that the first batch of generating units of the Longyuan Power Hainan Qiyuan offshore wind power project were officially connected to the grid for power generation, marking a new breakthrough in large-scale, industrialized operation of China’s high-capacity offshore wind turbine units. After the entire project is put into operation, the Qiyuan offshore wind farm is expected to generate more than 1.5 billion kWh of electricity annually. This can meet the electricity demand of about 1.2 million three-person households in Hainan, equivalent to reducing about 46.7 million tons of standard coal consumption each year and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by about 127.1 million tons.

10,Multiple helium supply chain companies said that the Middle East is an important helium production region. In China’s imported helium, the Middle East’s share of imports exceeds half. From February 28 to now, the price of imported bundled helium in capped containers has risen from about 80 yuan per cubic meter to 155 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of more than 90%; meanwhile, domestic helium prices have increased by a relatively lower amount. Currently, companies are actively responding by accelerating the layout of helium purification equipment, finding new sources of helium cargo, and so on.

11,Zhang Xue’s anti-counterfeit and high-copycat account. The company issued a statement saying that Zhang Xue himself currently has not opened a personal account on the Xiaohongshu platform under the name “Zhang Xue’s motorcycle.” All accounts claiming to be “Zhang Xue’s motorcycle” are fake accounts; other accounts that publish videos of content from Zhang Xue’s first-person perspective are also re-uploads, and have nothing to do with Zhang Xue or the company. The company has filed reports about the above-mentioned fake accounts.

1,The “Measures for the Management of Information Services for Digital Virtual Humans (Draft for Soliciting Opinions)” being drafted by the Cyberspace Administration of China is currently soliciting public comments. Digital virtual humans refer to virtual digital images of human appearance that exist in non-physical worlds, simulate human appearance by using technologies such as computer graphics, digital image processing, or artificial intelligence, and have characteristics such as voice, behavior, interaction abilities, or personality—driven by a real person or by computation.

1,Samsung of South Korea and France’s MISTRAL discuss cooperation in the field of AI memory.

2,Hon Hai’s revenue for March 2026 was 803.7 billion New Taiwan dollars, up 34.90% month on month and up 45.57% year on year, the highest for the same period in any year. Revenue for the first quarter of 2026 was 2.1296 trillion New Taiwan dollars, down 18.18% quarter on quarter and up 29.68% year on year, also the highest for the same period in any year.

3,Foxconn’s revenue for March was 803.74 billion New Taiwan dollars, up 45.6% year on year; first-quarter revenue rose 29.7% year on year. Based on the currently visible outlook, it is expected that second-quarter operating performance will achieve both month-on-month and year-on-year growth. AI server rack shipments are expected to maintain a continuing growth trend.

1, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei emphasized that the will of the Iranian people is to continue conducting effective homeland defense operations, and that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—this “strategic lever”—must also continue to be applied.

2, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying it launched strikes on petrochemical plants in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Bahrain, as well as on Israeli refineries and natural gas facilities in the United Arab Emirates. If attacks targeting civilian targets inside Iran occur again, the impact on the U.S. economic interests in the region will be further increased.

3, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Baghae‘i said that Iran will give a firm response to attacks targeting its infrastructure. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to attack Iran’s key infrastructure, including energy facilities, which amounts to “incitement to the crime of aggression and the crime of endangering humanity.” He said that Iran will respond to any attack on its national infrastructure, including strikes on U.S. or related facilities.

4,Iran’s parliamentary speaker threatened to cut off commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Mandeb, the throat connecting the Red Sea. Mehdi Tabatabaei, deputy director for news and communications at Iran’s presidential office, pointed out that only after establishing a new legal regime and using past ship-tax revenues to compensate Iran for all losses it suffered in past wars will the Strait of Hormuz be reopened in full.

5,Economists said that the sudden spike in gasoline prices that U.S. consumers can feel directly will be fully reflected in the key inflation data to be released this week. The U.S. March CPI is expected to rise 1% month on month, the largest single-month increase since 2022; core CPI may rise 0.3% month on month.

6,The Middle East conflict has pushed up energy prices. Slovakia and Hungary called on the European Union to lift sanctions on Russia’s energy immediately. Finance ministers from five countries, including Spain, Germany, and Italy, urged the EU to impose an EU-wide windfall tax on energy companies.

7,Germany released the latest tourism industry survey targeting 1,124 people, showing that 16% of respondents changed their travel plans for the next three months due to concerns about international developments; among them, 46% decided not to travel, and one-third canceled their originally planned trips.

1,Elon Musk posted to deny a report about “SpaceX about to launch an IPO with a valuation exceeding 2 trillion dollars,” saying it is nonsense. Previously, it was reported that SpaceX planned to raise 750 billion dollars, with a valuation possibly reaching 2 trillion dollars, which could become one of the largest public offerings in history.

2,OpenAI CEO Sam Altman privately said he hopes the company will go public as soon as possible in the fourth quarter of this year. The company’s Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar previously believed that the company would not yet meet listing requirements in 2026, because the relevant processes and organizational preparation work have not yet been completed, and there are also risks associated with large spending commitments.

1,CICC’s outlook on April liquidity: The current situation of China’s domestic economic recovery, which is structural in nature, is fairly close to the imported inflation cycle of 2021–2022. It is expected that the central bank will flexibly use various monetary policy tools such as the MLF and buyout-style reverse repos to manage liquidity. In addition, given the uncertain outlook for the U.S.-Iran conflict and the background of stronger supply than demand in China’s domestic economy, the bond market is expected to continue attracting capital inflows, with the overnight funding center likely to remain below the policy interest rate, and the R-DR spread also expected to stay at a low level.

1,The head of the International Energy Agency, Birol, warned that if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened for shipping, the quantity of crude oil and refined products lost in April will be twice the amount lost in March. Even if the conflict ends, it will take a long time to restore normal operations.

2,Data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing shows that in March, China’s bulk commodity price index was 129.9, up 4% month on month and up 14.5% year on year, both higher than the levels in the same period last year. Judging from the index’s trend, after the holiday, enterprise production rebounded steadily, and market demand was released relatively well. The bulk commodity market as a whole has maintained an expansion trend, and the positive foundation has been further consolidated.

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