ShouChuang Futures: Oil prices fluctuate at high levels, PX futures fluctuate and adjust

In the spot market, CFR China PX prices are $1,275 per ton, down $20 per ton from the previous trading day.
On the cost side, Iraq and the Kurdish authorities reached an export agreement to resume exporting oil through Turkey’s Ceyhan port, which has slightly eased concerns about a disruption in crude oil supply, and crude oil prices have softened somewhat.
On the supply side, the risk of crude oil supply disruptions caused by geopolitical factors has forced refineries to cut loads on a large scale. Domestic and overseas PX turnaround plans have increased; in Asia and in China, PX operating rates have fallen for two consecutive weeks. In the later period, there is still room for PX starts to decline, and PX has entered a de-stocking phase.
On the demand side, the downstream polyester and end-application textile production seasonally rebounds, but geopolitical factors have triggered sharp fluctuations in raw material prices. Some end customers lack new orders, leading to a decline in plant operating rates, and negative feedback at the end-market has begun to show. After PTA processing margins were compressed significantly, turnaround maintenance at plants increased, and expectations for PX demand have fallen.
In summary, crude oil prices are trading in a high-range sideways pattern, and the chemical sector is undergoing broad-based adjustments. Looking at the medium term, the marginal balance between PX supply and demand should improve. Despite geopolitical disruptions, there is still substantial uncertainty on the supply side. The neutral outlook still maintains an overweight position. Going forward, the key focus should be on geopolitical developments, the crude oil price trend, and changes in upstream and downstream plant operations. (First Capital Futures)