In the next few days, to accurately grasp Bitcoin's rhythm, focusing on these four core points is enough:

- April 6th afternoon (Eastern Time): Trump press conference
Key points to watch: whether he signals de-escalation and favors negotiations, or adopts a tough stance and issues strong words
- April 7th at 8 PM (Eastern Time): Deadline for the ultimatum
Critical to see if conflict erupts: no fighting = positive rebound; fighting begins = negative initially drops then recovers
- Strait of Hormuz navigation situation
As long as oil tankers pass normally, oil prices remain relatively stable
Once a full blockade occurs, oil prices could surge above 120, with Bitcoin likely to face pressure and pull back first
- Whether the US military initiates ground operations
Currently, no exclusion of deploying ground troops has been stated
If ground intervention occurs, conflict will escalate directly, and Bitcoin is likely to decline again
Although there’s little goodwill toward Trump, at this stage, his statements and press conferences are more effective than all technical indicators.
Every word before the deadline could directly cause about 5% of sharp volatility in the market.