$BTC 4.6 Afternoon Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis and Trading Suggestions

This morning's price rose from 68,300 to 69,583, seemingly indicating bullish momentum with increased volume. However, a closer look at the order book shows that when breaking through the 69,000 level, trading volume did not significantly surpass the volume seen during the early stabilization phase. Instead, there was noticeable selling pressure above 69,500. Currently, the price has retraced to around 69,000, which suggests a lack of strong buying interest at higher levels—more like a pulse move created by insufficient liquidity in the early session rather than a genuine trend breakout.

On the daily chart, technical indicators show clear divergence risks. The 5-day moving average has crossed above the 10-day moving average to form a golden cross, but the price is already far from the moving averages, with a large divergence, indicating a short-term correction may be needed. Although the MACD histogram has expanded, the fast and slow lines remain above the zero line in a high region. Historically, such "high-level re-activation" setups often trap bulls—similar structures appeared before the previous high at 71,000 during a pullback. The so-called "platform breakout" on the candlestick chart has not effectively stabilized above the 68,800-69,000 zone for more than three 4-hour candles, casting doubt on the breakout's validity.

In terms of trading strategy, it is not advisable to chase long positions. The 69,500-69,800 zone has accumulated a large number of trapped positions, and with current volume levels, a strong breakout is unlikely. The more probable scenario is that after repeated oscillations around 69,000, the price will weaken again due to a lack of follow-up buying interest. If the price falls below 68,800, it can be seen as a short-term trend turning bearish signal. The best approach now is to stay on the sidelines rather than blindly buying into what appears to be a strong rally.