Trump says the Strait will reopen "soon," but the market is not convinced: recovery within a few months is unlikely

Guotong Finance App News—Although there is hope that the U.S. and Iran may reach an agreement, market participants on the prediction markets do not have enough confidence that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal within the next few weeks. Iran has, in fact, blocked the strait for the fourth week, seriously disrupting roughly 20% of the world’s crude oil transportation routes, causing oil prices to fluctuate in a high range.

The current number of ships transiting the strait per day has fallen sharply. IMF PortWatch data shows that during the pre-war period, daily transits exceeded 100 vessels, while the recent seven-day moving average has dropped to an extremely low level, with some periods seeing only single-digit counts.

On Wednesday (March 25) during the Asia session, U.S. crude oil prices moved lower with volatility and were trading around $89 per barrel, down about 3.6% from Tuesday’s settlement price.

Prediction market bet probabilities

On the Kalshi platform, the probability of “normalization” of Strait of Hormuz traffic (“seven-day moving average transits exceeding 60 vessels”) is as follows:

Normalization before April 15: below 25%;

Normalization before June 1: above 67%;

Normalization before July 1: reaching 76%.

Another Kalshi market shows that the probability of the seven-day average transits exceeding 10 vessels by April 1 is about 30%-32%.

On Polymarket, the probability of normalization before the end of April is 39%, a significant drop from this month’s early high of nearly 80%. The cumulative amount bet on this market has already exceeded $1 million.

Strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important energy chokepoint. Prior to the war, it handled about 20% of global crude oil transportation. Iran’s response to U.S.-and-Israel military strikes led to the strait being effectively blocked, with tanker traffic falling sharply to a “trickle” level, triggering the most severe energy supply shock in history.

At present, most vessels are choosing to detour or wait and see. Soaring insurance costs and safety concerns have become the main obstacles. Restoring normal traffic requires both sides to reach a reliable agreement and establish long-term navigation safety assurance mechanisms.

Trump-related remarks

U.S. President Trump said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz could “reopen” “very soon,” as part of his plan to pause strikes on Iran’s energy facilities for five days. He proposed that the U.S. and Iran could jointly control the strait and said that both sides are “very eager to reach an agreement.”

Trump added that if the issue of freedom of navigation cannot be resolved through negotiations, the U.S. will “continue bombing with full force.” After his remarks, market optimism regarding progress on a ceasefire briefly boosted risk assets.

The prediction market bet indications reflect the market’s pessimistic expectations for a near-term recovery; in the long run, the probability of normalization in June-July is higher, but it still depends on the outcome of diplomatic negotiations.

Outlook for the later period and risks

In the short term (before April 15), the probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal is low, the risk of an energy supply disruption remains high, and oil prices along with global inflation pressure will stay elevated.

If breakthroughs in U.S.-Iran negotiations are achieved with support from a mediator, traffic through the strait may gradually resume in May-June; otherwise, continued blockage will further tighten global supply-chain strains.

Investors need to closely monitor changes in real-time odds on Kalshi and Polymarket, Trump’s subsequent remarks, and IMF PortWatch transit data. Geopolitical risk remains the dominant factor in the current market, and any diplomatic progress could trigger significant volatility.

Editor’s summary

Prediction market bettors lack confidence in a near-term recovery of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Kalshi shows the probability of normalization before April 15 is below 25%, and Polymarket shows the probability before the end of April is only 39%. Although Trump said the strait may reopen soon and proposed a joint control plan, actual traffic volume is still at an extremely low level, and the energy supply shock continues to build.

Overall, the timing of the strait’s restoration depends highly on progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations. In the short term, uncertainty in global energy markets will remain high, and in the medium to long term, the probability of recovery will gradually rise over time.

(U.S. crude oil continuous 4-hour chart, source: Easy Forex Trading) At 11:18 Beijing time, U.S. crude oil continuous is currently quoted at $88.41 per barrel.

A massive flow of information and precise interpretation is available in the Sina Finance App

责任编辑：郭建