Early morning Bitcoin's sudden surge, any observer can see it's another classic case of news-driven hype. The rumors of a 45-day ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. seem like good news on the surface, but essentially it's just a manipulated market move driven by capital exploiting the situation.

Regardless of the negotiation outcome, this kind of pulse-like rally driven by geopolitical factors lacks sustainable momentum. The current overall trend remains bearish, and even if a ceasefire agreement is reached, it will only provide a short-term emotional boost. Bitcoin in the 69,000-70,000 range will face strong technical selling pressure.

If negotiations break down, risk aversion will likely first crush the leveraged long positions, causing the market to turn sharply downward. Any short-term rally is a good opportunity to establish short positions. Do not be fooled by temporary price spikes.