Weekly Highlights: Trump Issues "Final Ultimatum" Again, US and China Inflation Data, Samsung and Tianfu Communication Earnings

（Source: Shanghai Entropy Research & Consulting）

April 06 - April 12 Key Financial Events This Week at a Glance; all times are Beijing time:

Next week’s market’s core themes:

On the macro front, watch China-U.S. inflation and monetary policy. Fueled by the Iran situation that has pushed energy prices higher, the U.S. March CPI year-on-year change in month-over-month terms may hit a new high since 2022. This will add “hawkish” pressure to the minutes of the Federal Reserve meetings it releases. Domestically, China will see a cluster of releases for March CPI and PPI, as well as financial data. In addition, next week India, New Zealand, and South Korea’s central banks will each release their interest-rate decisions in sequence. The market expects all three central banks to keep rates unchanged.

On the geopolitical front, continue to watch the Iran situation. Trump has demanded that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz by April 6, and Iran has rejected this “final ultimatum.” Combined with the expiration of the U.S. authorization for oil sales to Russia, supply risks caused by the geopolitical game will directly feed into oil prices and safe-haven assets. In addition, NATO Secretary General will visit the U.S. and meet with Trump.

On the industry front, Heli Information and Tianfu Communication will release their performance results, and Samsung Electronics’ earnings guidance may also be released. The commercial aerospace sector may see dense launches, such as the Long March 8A, among others. The China Electronics Information Expo will showcase cutting-edge technologies such as embodied intelligence. In addition, the storage-chain pressure reflected in Xiaomi’s price adjustments, along with disclosures including NIO’s new vehicle and the filing of the first-quarter report from the first Shenzhen-listed company, will jointly form the hot main line for stock-specific games next week.

Also, next Monday is the Western Easter; European stock markets will be closed. Domestically, during Qingming Festival, the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets will be closed.

Economic indicators

China CPI, PPI, foreign reserves, and financial data

On April 7, China will release March foreign exchange reserves data. Previously, China had increased its gold holdings for 16 consecutive months.

On April 10, China will release March CPI and PPI data. CICC Securities expects that March PPI year-over-year has a chance to turn positive, potentially breaking 1% in April. After the disruption from the Spring Festival fades, March CPI year-over-year may fall slightly.

In the week of April 9, China’s March financial data will be released. CICC Securities expects that March credit may see a seasonal increase in volume, but the issuance pace of government bonds will slow year-on-year, and total social financing (TSF) year-over-year may fall slightly; M1 year-over-year will also decline accordingly.

U.S. March CPI, February PCE

On April 10, the U.S. will release March CPI data. Driven by a surge in energy prices caused by the Iran war, the market generally expects inflation to rise significantly. It is expected that the month-over-month increase in overall CPI in March may reach 0.9%, a new high since June 2022. The year-over-year growth rate is expected to rise from 2.4% to 3.3%.

On April 9, the U.S. will release the February PCE price index, the inflation gauge most favored by the Federal Reserve. The market expects that core PCE inflation month-over-month in February may strengthen from 0.36% to 0.44%, and the year-over-year growth rate may fall from 3.1% to 3.0%. Since September last year, core PCE and core CPI have shown a significant divergence due to differences in statistical coverage. U.S. real GDP data for Q4 will also be released on the same day.

Central bank decisions such as South Korea and New Zealand; Japan’s February labor cash earnings

Next week, India, New Zealand, and South Korea’s central banks will release interest-rate decisions one after another. The market expects all three central banks to keep rates unchanged. The subsequent policy path may depend on the extent to which the Middle East situation is transmitted to each economy.

On April 8, Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare will release February labor cash earnings data. Bloomberg’s forecast suggests that the year-over-year growth rate of February labor cash earnings may slow from 3.0% in January to 2.5%. The year-over-year growth rate of actual earnings is expected to slow from 1.4% to 1.1%. The main points to watch next will be whether the strong momentum in spring wage negotiations is reflected in the data.

Federal Reserve to release minutes of monetary policy meeting

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the FOMC meeting on March 17-18. The market expects the minutes to show that the committee leans toward waiting and watching amid the high uncertainty caused by the Iran war. Powell indicated that the committee would consider ignoring the issue of oil shocks only when it sees progress in core inflation as the effects of tariffs fade.

After that, 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will deliver remarks on monetary policy.

Financial and economic events

Continue to watch the Iran situation; Trump issues another “final ultimatum”

According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum, demanding that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz by April 6, but Iran rejected this “final ultimatum.”

April 6 is also the deadline Trump set for delaying airstrikes against Iran’s energy facilities. However, the Middle East situation continues to change, and military actions by both sides in the recent period are still escalating.

The U.S. approves some licenses for Russian oil sales; they expire on April 11

Earlier reports by CCTV said that the U.S. Treasury Department issued a general license related to Russia, allowing sales of Russian crude oil and petroleum products that have been loaded onto vessels starting March 12, and such Russian crude oil and petroleum products may be sold up to 00:01 a.m. Eastern Time on April 11.

NATO Secretary General to travel to the U.S. to meet with Trump by April 8-12

NATO: Secretary General Rutte will travel to the U.S. by April 8-12. Rutte will meet with U.S. President Trump, Secretary of State Rubio, and Defense Secretary Hegseth on April 8. According to Xinhua News Agency, earlier Trump was “seriously considering” having the U.S. withdraw from NATO.

Zheng Lixiawen to visit Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Beijing from April 7 to 12

Chairman of the China Kuomintang Zheng Lixiawen leads a China Kuomintang delegation to visit and tour Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Beijing from April 7 to 12.

Long March 8A variant; launch expected on April 7

In addition, commercial space in April will see dense catalysts: 1. Tianlong-3, planned to be launched on April 2, the first flight of a domestically developed 20-ton-class liquid rocket for commercial space. 2. Long March 8A variant, scheduled to launch on April 7. 3. Jiuque-2E, expected to be launched from Jiuquan in April; variant return flight and reliability verification. 4. Jiuque-3, expected in late April; return verification.

For the overseas SpaceX side: 1. Falcon 9, expected to carry out 3-4 routine launches in early April. 2. Starship V3, expected to make its first flight in mid-to-early April; if successful, it will lay a solid foundation for lunar exploration and space computing power development.

Xiaomi raises prices for some mobile phone products

Xiaomi has released an announcement. Due to the continued sharp surge in prices of key components such as global storage chips, after careful assessment, the company will adjust the suggested retail prices of some products for sale effective 00:00 on April 11, 2026. This adjustment covers three models: the REDMI K90 Pro Max will be increased by 200 yuan; Turbo 5 and Turbo 5 Max will cancel the spring festival promotions; the 512G high-memory version will continue to receive a 200 yuan subsidy.

The 14th China Electronics Information Expo opens

The 14th China Electronics Information Expo (CITE 2026) will be held from April 9 to 11, 2026 at the Shenzhen Convention and Exhibition Center (Futian). More than 1,200 leading enterprises and innovation teams from around the world will participate. Among them, the embodied intelligence segment will see a collective appearance by star companies such as Unitree Robotics, Uniteng Robotics, ZhiYuan Robotics, Yunjian Robotics, and Lingxin Shousong. In addition, the expo will host the first AI OPC robot/hardware hackathon.

ASEAN finance ministers and central bank governors meeting held

A meeting of ASEAN finance ministers and central bank governors is held from April 7 to April 10.

NIO ES9 technology conference

The NIO ES9 product technology conference— a large premium SUV of the technology and administration flagship under the NIO brand—will be held officially on April 9. At that time, the NIO ES9 will complete its unveiling simultaneously.

Earnings reports

Samsung Electronics earnings guidance may be released

Samsung Electronics is set to publish its 2026 Q1 earnings guidance next Tuesday. Market expectations are that its quarterly operating profit will be close to the level of last year’s full-year.

According to LSEG’s analyst consensus for earnings, Samsung Electronics’ operating profit for January to March this year is expected to reach 40.5 trillion won, about $26.9 billion. By comparison, this global largest memory chip manufacturer’s operating profit for full-year 2025 was 43.6 trillion won. At the same time, LSEG data shows that Samsung Electronics’ Q1 revenue is expected to grow 50% year-over-year, driven by an unprecedented “super cycle” in memory chips.

In addition, next week, companies including Heli Information, Langxin Information, Tianfu Communication, Yongwan, Suning? (Suning? actually “Sunsing”?), Qatar National Bank, Applied Digital, and Exxon Mobil will release earnings reports.

Disclosure schedule for Q1 2026 results for Shenzhen-listed companies is released; Wohuayao (rights protection) tops the list

The disclosure schedule for Q1 2026 results for Shenzhen-listed companies has been released. Wohuayao will be the first to disclose its Q1 report on April 8, 2026. *ST Yunwang, Kairuide (rights protection), Junda Shares, Runze Technology, Chenhua Shares, and others will follow, with disclosures on April 9, 2026 and April 10, 2026 respectively.

A preview of some A-share companies’ 2025 annual report disclosure dates next week:

A preview of some A-share companies’ Q1 2026 report disclosure dates next week:

A preview of Hong Kong stock earnings report disclosure dates next week:

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