Guoxin Futures: Watch for changes in cross-strait passage; oil prices may remain volatile in the short term

China’s domestic crude oil futures’ benchmark contract SC2604 jumped sharply, closing at 722.3 yuan per barrel, up 73.1 yuan per barrel, a gain of 11.26%, with open interest decreasing by 1,997 lots. Ships in the Strait of Hormuz were hit by a new attack, intensifying concerns about disruptions to crude oil supply. The International Energy Agency recommended releasing 400 million barrels of strategic reserve oil, but the IEA’s record proposal to release oil reserves is not enough to ease these concerns. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that for the week ending March 6, 2026, total U.S. crude oil inventories, including strategic reserves, were 858.55M barrels, up 3.83 million barrels from the previous week. On the technical front, oil prices have entered a high-range, wide-band trading range. For trading, the recommendation is to focus mainly on short-term intraday trades with light positions. Looking ahead to oil price trends, the key still depends on the daily number of crude oil passages through the Strait of Hormuz; if normalcy cannot be restored soon, there will still be a supply-side gap, though the supply shortfall is smaller than previously expected. In the near term, U.S. WTI crude oil is expected to focus on support around $80 per barrel. Assuming the war does not escalate further, in the near term U.S. WTI crude oil may trade in the range of about $80–$100 per barrel. In China, domestic crude oil futures in the near term may trade in a range around 600 yuan per barrel to 750 yuan per barrel. (CITIC Futures)