Since the sharp escalation of the Iran situation in early April, the crypto market has entered a "news-driven" phase synchronized with global risk assets: Trump set Tuesday at 8 p.m. Eastern Time as the deadline for Iran's response, after Iran previously rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal.

However, about an hour and a half before military action was about to commence, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire (on the condition that Iran fully opens the Strait of Hormuz). The Pakistani Prime Minister then confirmed that both sides' ceasefire took effect at 3:30 a.m. Iran time on the 8th. This statement was the direct catalyst for BTC soaring from 67,700 to 72,700, and also a key external factor for ETH breaking through 2,200.

Although the geopolitical situation has temporarily eased, the macro environment's pressure on risk assets has not been fully lifted:

· U.S. Treasury yields: Since the Middle East conflict escalated, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.36%, up 40 basis points.
· Rate cut expectations: The swap market expects zero probability of a Fed rate cut at the FOMC meeting on April 28–29.
· Inflation risk: PCE inflation data will be released on Thursday, with ongoing risks of oil prices transmitting to core inflation.
· Fed minutes: The March FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on April 9. If the wording is hawkish, it could trigger a retest of the 67,000 support level.

BTC trend: Short-term surge driven by short covering and ceasefire expectations; overbought on 4H/15M charts, with divergence on the daily but still a bearish structure. Confirmation of trend reversal requires a solid hold above 72,000. If it drops back below 68,000, the consolidation pattern continues; if it breaks below 67,000, bearish risk increases.

ETH trend: Whales are starting to accumulate, but the $3.4 billion buy order has failed to break through the 2,160–2,200 resistance zone. Larger capital inflows are needed. A successful break above 2,388 opens upward space; a drop below 2,108 indicates short-term bearishness.
Resistance levels: 2,388 (recent rebound high) → 2,400–2,500 (further targets). If the daily close effectively breaks 2,388, the next target points to 2,746.
Support levels: 2,108 (around the 20-day EMA) → 2,000–2,050 (psychological level / recent low). A daily close below 2,108 would significantly weaken the short-term bullish tone, with downside potential toward 1,911 or even 1,800.

The US-Iran two-week ceasefire is a short-term emotional support, but uncertainty remains high: whether the ceasefire continues, the wording of the FOMC minutes, and PCE inflation data.

Market sentiment: The fear index has risen from 11 to 17, still in the "extreme fear" zone. Historically, this level often appears during transitional accumulation phases, and extreme fear is often accompanied by smart institutional capital entering the market. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战 $BTC