If the Strait of Hormuz truly opens up for "two weeks," does that mean the situation is easing?

My first reaction is: a short-term, limited opening is more like creating space for a longer, more controllable game rather than simply cooling down.

First, from Iran's perspective, a complete blockade would quickly drive up oil prices and drag the global economy into risk—something no party wants to see;
but on the other hand, fully restoring free navigation means giving up the biggest bargaining chip in hand.

Second, from the U.S. perspective, on one hand, it must prevent the Strait from being completely cut off—otherwise, oil prices, inflation, and financial markets will all be under pressure;
but on the other hand, it cannot accept Iran establishing a long-term, sustainable control regime over the world's most important energy corridor.

So, the speculation—
Iran hopes the Strait becomes a blood vessel—beyond toll roads, there are other demands like avoiding sanctions to maintain the regime, so it can't be completely sealed off or easily let go.
The U.S. needs to maintain deterrence pressure but cannot flip the table and let the situation spiral out of control.

Therefore, a mutually (or multi-party) acceptable state is:
The Strait is no longer "completely closed," but it won't return to the original open order either. Instead, it enters a mode with selective access, rules, and even pricing mechanisms.

This two-week window can create space for negotiations and also extend the life of the nearly exhausted offshore floating oil.

In other words, this is not the end of the war but more like the game entering the next phase.
As I said yesterday, "The war narrative is coming to an end,"
but today I can add, "The narrative of the restructuring of the Hormuz Strait order is starting."
It used to be about whether the Strait opens or not; now it's about "who has the qualification to pass, how to pass, and who sets the rules."

From a market perspective, the short-term core concern—improvement in the Strait of Hormuz transit situation—has some positive signs, but the fluctuations caused by conflict and negotiations will be very intense, with sharp rises and falls.
However, in the short two weeks, there will be some emotional recovery.
Stimulating, huh.
#国际油价走高