Gold Trading Reminder: Trump suddenly announces a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East! Oil prices plummet over $20, gold prices surge, hitting a two-week high

Tonghui Finance APP News—— Late Tuesday local time, just as the final deadline in US Eastern Time was about to arrive, U.S. President Trump suddenly posted on the social media platform “Truth Social,” announcing his agreement to pause the bombing and military strike operations against Iran for a full two weeks. This major piece of news was like a “peace bomb,” quickly dispelling market concerns about tensions in the Middle East, and causing sharp fluctuations across global financial markets. On Wednesday (April 8) in early trading in Asia, oil prices plunged by more than $20 in a short period of time, while gold prices strongly rebounded by more than 2%, hitting a level more than two weeks high. The entire market sentiment shifted rapidly from tense risk aversion to risk appetite, and the U.S. Dollar Index also clearly fell, reaching a new low in more than two weeks.

1. Trump Announces Bilateral Ceasefire: From Achieving Military Targets to Advancing a Peace Agreement
In the post, Trump detailed the background of this decision. He said that, after communications with the Prime Minister of Pakistan and the Chairman of the Army Staff, both sides requested a postponement of the planned devastating strikes against Iran that were due to take place that evening, on the condition that Iran agrees to fully, immediately, and safely open the Strait of Hormuz. Trump ultimately agreed to pause military action for two weeks and emphasized that this would be a “bilateral ceasefire.”

He further noted that the United States had achieved and even exceeded all pre-established military objectives, making major progress in promoting Iran to conclude a long-term peace agreement and in achieving lasting peace in the Middle East. Trump mentioned that Iran had put forward a ten-point plan, which the U.S. side regarded as a feasible basis for negotiations. Both sides had reached agreement on almost all contentious points in the past; the two-week ceasefire period would be used specifically to finalize and formally sign the agreement.

Trump concluded by saying that, as President of the United States, and on behalf of countries across the Middle East, he is honored to see a long-standing problem troubling the region being resolved, and he thanked all parties for their continued attention to the matter.

2. Iran Reacts Positively: Negotiations to Begin in Islamabad on April 10
Iran promptly responded positively to the ceasefire proposal. The Iranian Mehr News Agency reported, citing a statement from the Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretariat, that negotiations with the United States will officially begin in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, on April 10, lasting for two weeks.

In a statement issued in the early hours of the 8th local time, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said that, based on the guidance of the Supreme Leader and with approval from the Council, it had accepted the ceasefire proposal put forward by Pakistan. Iran’s national television went even further, directly stating that U.S. President Trump showed a “pathetic retreat” in his anti-Iran remarks and accepted the ceasefire conditions proposed by Iran.

Iran’s side emphasized that the negotiations held in Islamabad aim to lock down specific details, with the results Iran achieved on the battlefield to be confirmed politically at the latest within 15 days. This statement shows that both sides are moving in the direction of resolving the crisis through diplomatic means.

3. Tense Games Before the Ceasefire Announcement Lands: Israel Issues Multiple Statements and Faces Pressure from the Final Deadline
Before Trump announced the ceasefire, the situation was highly tense. A report from Israeli media on the evening of the 7th said that as the final deadline set by the United States for Iran was about to expire, contact between the U.S. and Iran had made some progress; all parties were working to push for a temporary ceasefire and to explore the possibility of gradually reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

A report by Israel Public Broadcasting Service, citing diplomatic sources, said that Pakistan proposed extending the deadline by two weeks, and related consultations were underway under tight conditions; although nothing had been finalized yet, “positive progress” had already appeared. The Israeli newspaper “Israel News” also reported that the engagement was moving toward a temporary ceasefire, and during this period the Strait of Hormuz could be gradually reopened. Regional intelligence officials believed that the parties were closer to a ceasefire than the outside world had expected, and were trying to reach some arrangement before the final deadline.

However, Israel’s stance was relatively cautious. A report on Israel’s Channel 12 television, citing military sources, said that the current direction of events remained unclear—it could lead to fighting or result in an agreement. Israel is preparing for multiple scenarios, including a ceasefire, a framework agreement, and expanding military operations. The report also mentioned that Israeli officials would characterize the next few hours as a “critical moment,” and expressed concern about whether the arrangements reached between the U.S. and Iran at the last moment could fully meet Israel’s interests.

Meanwhile, the Israeli military issued a statement on the evening of the 7th warning that attacks targeting Israel might escalate in the coming hours, calling on the public to stay vigilant and strictly follow civil defense directives. In an interview on Fox News on the 7th, Trump himself also said that the United States was conducting “intense negotiations” regarding the conflict with Iran, but did not disclose more details. On the 6th and 7th, he had issued tough statements on social media, even threatening that “tonight, all of civilization will perish,” showing the enormous pressure during the negotiation period.

4. Markets React Violently: Oil Prices Plunge, Gold Prices Soar, and the Dollar Falls
As soon as news of the ceasefire was released, market concerns about Middle East geopolitical risk rapidly cooled. International oil prices dropped sharply on the spot. By early Wednesday morning at 07:15, U.S. WTI crude was at one point below the key $100 psychological level, refreshing the low for three trading days to $92.52 per barrel. The largest decline expanded to 18%, which was more than $20 lower than Tuesday’s settlement price. This drop not only reflected the market’s easing of fears about supply disruption risk, but directly reduced global inflation pressure.

Spot gold prices rose sharply by more than 2%. By 07:20 early Wednesday morning, they at one point refreshed a level more than two weeks high to $4,825.87 per ounce. On Tuesday, gold prices had been trading in a narrow range and ended at $4,705.08 per ounce, up about 1.2%. Before the final deadline, the gold market was essentially in a wait-and-see mode, but China’s central bank’s ongoing purchases of gold provided an important upward catalyst for gold prices.

In addition, by 07:20 early Wednesday morning, the U.S. Dollar Index also refreshed a two-week low to 99.01, down about 0.64%. The steep fall in oil prices eased market concerns about inflation, dampened expectations for the Federal Reserve to hike rates, and U.S. stock index futures jumped more than 2% on the spot, hitting a three-week high. As a result, demand for the dollar as a safe haven fell sharply.

It is worth mentioning that the gold reserve data for end-March released by China’s central bank on Tuesday shows that gold reserves increased to 74.38 million ounces, up by 160k ounces from the end of last month. This marks China’s central bank’s 17th consecutive month of increasing gold holdings. This steady gold-reserve strategy further boosted market bullish sentiment and added momentum to gold prices.

5. Outlook for the Next Phase: Geopolitics and Fed Data Will Become the Focus
Over the coming period, investors should continue to closely monitor further developments in the Middle East, including the specific progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad, and changes in risk appetite in the oil and stock markets.

At the same time, macroeconomic data will also be an important influencing factor. On Wednesday (early Thursday Beijing time), the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its March meeting. On Thursday, the United States will publish Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. On Friday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released. In addition, on Wednesday there will also be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision and public speeches by multiple Federal Reserve officials; the market should pay close attention.

Overall, Trump’s sudden announcement that there would be a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East injected a “stabilizer” into an otherwise tense geopolitical situation. The significant drop in oil prices and the strong rebound in gold not only reflect the market’s rapid pricing of peace expectations, but also indicate that global investors swiftly switched between risks and opportunities. Over the next two weeks, whether U.S.-Iran negotiations can proceed smoothly and whether the peace process in the Middle East can truly take hold will remain the core variables determining the direction of global commodities and financial markets.

At 07:20 Beijing time, spot gold is quoted at $4,825.54 per ounce.

（责任编辑：Cao Yanyan HA008）

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