The economy showed a strong start in the first quarter, with high-frequency data such as offline consumption rebounding.

A reporter learned from the Big Data Development Department of the National Information Center of the National Development and Reform Commission that, according to multiple high-frequency indicators, this year’s first quarter saw a solid start for China’s economy, with strong momentum from the outset. In particular, in the first quarter, the offline consumption payment amount increased by 3.4% year over year; the growth rate was up by 2.2 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter of last year. The categories of electronic products and household appliances saw faster growth. In terms of investment, in the first quarter, for projects related to the construction of compute infrastructure and the development of software and hardware, the bid-winning amount increased by 4.7% year over year.

In the first quarter, driven jointly by factors such as holidays and policies to update consumer goods with trade-ins, both retail sales of consumer goods and service consumption rebounded strongly.

Offline consumption data on a large scale show that, in the first quarter, the offline consumption payment amount increased by 3.4% year over year, with the growth rate up by 2.2 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter of last year. Specifically, commodity consumption increased by 5.2% year over year, with the growth rate up by 3.2 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter of last year. Among this, electronic products and household appliances grew faster, rising by 10.7% and 8.4% year over year, respectively, with growth rates up by 2.4 and 23.5 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter of last year.

In the first quarter, service consumption increased by 0.9% year over year, with the growth rate up by 0.5 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter of last year. Among them, transportation services and catering services grew faster, increasing by 6.9% and 4.5% year over year, respectively, with growth rates up by 2.0 and 1.7 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter of last year.

Xing Yuguan, deputy researcher at the Big Data Development Department of the National Information Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that in the first quarter of 2026, China’s offline consumption showed a good start characterized by steady overall volume and optimized structure. In particular, consumption demand for home appliances and digital products remained strong—this is the result of precise policy efforts to support trade-ins for consumer goods via ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, as well as to optimize interest subsidies for personal consumer loans. As the series of policies to boost consumption continues to take effect, the consumption market is expected to further increase in both quantity and quality, moving toward something new and better.

On the investment front, support for investment growth comes from fiscal policy front-loading and concentrated commencement of major projects. In the first quarter, for projects related to the construction of compute infrastructure and the development of software and hardware, the bid-winning amount increased by 4.7% year over year. The amount of capital investment events in cutting-edge areas such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robots grew by 45.5% year over year.

“According to calculations by the National Information Center, in the first quarter, the issuance amount of newly added special-purpose treasury bonds nationwide increased by 20.8% year over year.” Xing Yuguan said. Since the beginning of this year, policies to stabilize investment have been put into effect earlier, with funds allocated to key areas and weak links. Major engineering projects are accelerating their implementation. Investment in areas related to the intelligent economy, such as artificial intelligence and compute power, has been active. This not only provides a solid foundation for stable growth in fixed-asset investment and the overall macroeconomic picture this year, but also offers strong support for a strong start to the construction of major projects in the “15th Five-Year Plan/2026-2030 period.”

It is worth noting that experts also pointed out that in the first quarter, the pace of economic operations and economic data were disrupted by the factor of the “Spring Festival shifting into different months.” Luo Zhiheng, chief economist and head of the research institute at Yuekai Securities, said: This year’s Spring Festival arrived late, which pushed back the overall cycle of “working overtime before the holiday—shutdown during the Spring Festival—resumption after the holiday.” This technically lifted the year-on-year figures for January to February, while March data may face downward pressure.

For example, looking at high-frequency indicators, the cement dispatch rate—which reflects the activity level of construction—was higher than the same period last year in early-to-mid January and February, but lower than the same period last year from late February to March. “We should fully consider the disruptive effects of the Spring Festival and combine and observe January through March, so as to evaluate more objectively the real trends and endogenous momentum of economic operations at the beginning of the year.”

While the domestic demand market warms up, China’s foreign trade has also maintained a growth momentum. In the first quarter, the loaded tonnage of vessels departing and arriving at major ports increased by 9.6% and 5.4% year over year, respectively, with growth rates up by 23.4 and 7.0 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter of last year. Daily port cargo and container throughput increased by 2.4% and 8.5% year over year, respectively, with growth rates up by 1.6 and 1.4 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter of last year.

High-frequency data also show that in the first quarter, the operating vitality index for start-up enterprises and the operating vitality index for tech-innovation-oriented enterprises increased by 8.8% and 8.1% year over year, respectively. Of particular note is that innovation activity in the artificial intelligence field has been especially active. According to patent data, in the first quarter, the number of patent authorizations related to strategic emerging industries in China increased by 8.7% year over year, and in March it increased by 18.4% year over year. Among this, the number of patent authorizations related to artificial intelligence grew by 31.2% year over year in the first quarter, and by 39.8% year over year in March, indicating continuously enhanced innovation vitality. (Reporter Wang Zixu)

(Editor: Wen Jing)

Keywords:

                                                            Economy